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What Does Music and Hurricanes Have in Common? What Goes Around Comes Around. Everything Old is New Again. Expect Surprises in El Nino Years

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So the models backed away on development, and yet the moisture is still locked in place. But models show this blobby mess, concentrated Blobby rain mass hits the same spot the models hit the other day. Currently I'm just watching the pattern, peeking at models but not expecting much til I see the pattern begin to pull together.

Keep in mind the darker the berry the less the juice.

Well on this image.

Dark means dry, dry, dry.

Little pockets embedded in the red.

Small tropical waves.

And our huge GUMBY like moisture area.

That's juice off the SE/East Coast.

That said some models.........w

.....there is always that model

Sees possible development!

Will say the waves looking juicier.

That said they swim into dry air.

And shear as well so.......

...take those models with a teaspoon sea salt

But hey even Bryan looking at models.

It's August, we look.

"August look out you must!"

yep models are modeling the waves.

But they hit shear and dry air.

Only area to really watch is close in.

Close in... Above Caribbean.

The reason I'm mentioning this video is that in El Nino years we sometimes get wonky, weird tracks and surprises happen more in El Nino years than regular years. Betsy in 1965 was one those storms that is the best example. Loved hearing Bryan Norcross discuss Betsy, a hurricane I have studied in great detail. Betsy was a looper! She made several loops. She stalled, she was all about drama. And despite the NHC going with a Carolina, a North Carolina track, she backtracked and turned SW...then stalled again then turned due West the way Andrew did and like Andrew she went West thru Miami and the Keys then went on to that typical 2nd target and slammed into Louisiana ......oh like Andrew did and it'll happen again like Katrina did. But know that in an El Nino Year development should be later when we normally see real development and know to expect surprises because we have fronts and when we do they sometimes slice thru and other times they stall out and things can change in the ever popular cone! Loops can happen anytime, but they love El Nino Years.