Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

Thanks to all of you that still follow my forecasts.  I truly appreciate each and every one of you!

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
I will be out of the office from NOV. 22 through the end of the month, as we will be traveling to spend the Thanksgiving holiday with family.  I should be back on DEC. 01 to resume forecasting, but will once again be out of the office OOA Dec. 3 – 4 to travel to Gainesville as my wife is having a minor outpatient surgical procedure. 

I will be using the ECMWF model for the main forecast graphics for winter weather forecasts.  Over my years of forecasting, I prefer this model, as numerous articles depict the ECMWF to be the more accurate model as compared to the GFS.  Here is an excerpt from an article I found:

The ECMWF model’s resolution is 9km or about 5.5 miles. The GFS has a resolution of 25km or roughly 15.5 miles. This resolution is the distance between two points on a grid that the weather model uses. The smaller the number, the better the resolution/quality of a forecast.  The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model is another global numerical weather prediction model that is highly regarded for its accuracy. It employs advanced data assimilation techniques and sophisticated numerical algorithms to simulate atmospheric processes. The ECMWF model provides high-resolution forecasts for various meteorological variables, enabling forecasters to make more precise predictions.  According to current weather forecasting standards, the ECMWF model is generally considered the most accurate for predicting snowfall totals, often performing slightly better than American weather models like the GFS.

For forecast temperatures less than 72 hours out in the forecast period, I prefer using the NAM (North American Mesoscale) model.  This is what we refer to as a regional model, vice a global model, with its forecast grids within the North American continent.  The NAM 3km only goes out to 60 hours, and the NAM 12km goes out to 84 hours.

Should a forecast indicate very cold temperatures, or cold snowy weather:

The following link is from the Animal Welfare Act, and provides guidelines for temperatures regarding your animal:
ANIMAL WELFARE ACT
https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/ac-tech-note-temp-req-dogs.pdf
CONUS SATELLITE LOOP

WPC 12Z  SURFACE MAP NOV. 12, 2025

Analysis this morning indicates the very cold Polar air is modifying  and should continue to modify and warm over the next 48 hours. Warnings and advisories have diminished, but a few scattered still remain in effect for portions of the eastern CONUS.  Please click the NWS watch and warning display map further on in this synopsis to view ant advisories or statements for your area.
NAM TEMPERATURE ANIMATION 48 HOURS


NAM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST NOV. 12, 2025


ECMWF MSLP 48 HOUR FORECAST

WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS 12Z FORECAST NOV. 13

NAM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST NOV. 13, 2025


NAM APPARENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST NOV. 13, 2025


WUNDERGROUND FROST AND FREEZE FORECAST FOR NOV. 13, 2025

The following are forecast snowfall totals and precipitation by type during the next 120 hours
ECMWF 120 HOUR FORECAST KUCHERA SNOWFALL TOTALS AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS BY TYPE




Elsewhere, this is still 5 days out there, and the SPC has not designated anything, however the CSU – MLP (Colorado Stated University – Machine Learning Probabilities) model currently indicates we could be dealing with a MARGINAL probability for severe weather around NOV. 17.  Given that the SPC is not indicating this at the moment, I will just be monitoring the situation and will update if necessary.
CSU – MLP SEVERE PROBABILITY FORECAST

From the SPC (Storm Prediction Center):
…South-Central States on D6-8/Monday-Wednesday…
Latest guidance continues to converge towards the more consistent EC-AIFS with the evolution of the closed low off the southern CA coast at 12Z Saturday. Similar to yesterday’s EC-AIFS, this should become an open but compact wave as it ejects across the southern Rockies to the central Great Plains by Monday. The southern influence of the wave may overspread the northern periphery of western Gulf moisture, rendering at least low severe probabilities.

This wave may largely dampen into Tuesday with the more consistent EC-AIFS indicating a mid-level ridge building from the Gulf into the Mid-MS Valley, in advance of a large-scale trough in the West. The EC-AIFS hints at another potential cutoff/closed low situation, albeit farther east than the prior wave. With the GFS also supporting this scenario, severe potential in this pattern might remain marginal and confined to TX. This is in contrast to other guidance suggesting a more progressive wave interacting with the western Gulf moisture plume.

With the QBO (Quasi Biennial Oscillation) in an easterly phase, it is suggested within the next 2 weeks, we are still on schedule to see a completion of a SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event.  This is based on rising stratospheric temperature and pressure anomalies over the Arctic / Polar region.  These mainly take effect at approximately 60 degrees N Latitude.  Should this occur, it could allow for colder temperatures to once again affect portions of the CONUS.  I am posting sped up animations, as the animations are for current to 360 hours out.
ECMWF 10 MB AND 30 MB TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE ANOMALIES ANIMATIONS




ECMWF TEMPERATURE FORECAST ANIMATION 240 – 360 HOURS

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST