Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

Thanks to all of you that still follow my forecasts.  I truly appreciate each and every one of you!

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! 
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
I will be out of the office from NOV. 22 through the end of the month, as we will be traveling to spend the Thanksgiving holiday with family.  I should be back on DEC. 01 to resume forecasting, but will once again be out of the office OOA Dec. 3 – 4 to travel to Gainesville as my wife is having a minor outpatient surgical procedure. 

I will be using the ECMWF model for the main forecast graphics for winter weather forecasts.  Over my years of forecasting, I prefer this model, as numerous articles depict the ECMWF to be the more accurate model as compared to the GFS.  Here is an excerpt from an article I found:

The ECMWF model’s resolution is 9km or about 5.5 miles. The GFS has a resolution of 25km or roughly 15.5 miles. This resolution is the distance between two points on a grid that the weather model uses. The smaller the number, the better the resolution/quality of a forecast.  The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model is another global numerical weather prediction model that is highly regarded for its accuracy. It employs advanced data assimilation techniques and sophisticated numerical algorithms to simulate atmospheric processes. The ECMWF model provides high-resolution forecasts for various meteorological variables, enabling forecasters to make more precise predictions.  According to current weather forecasting standards, the ECMWF model is generally considered the most accurate for predicting snowfall totals, often performing slightly better than American weather models like the GFS.

For forecast temperatures less than 72 hours out in the forecast period, I prefer using the NAM (North American Mesoscale) model.  This is what we refer to as a regional model, vice a global model, with its forecast grids within the North American continent.  The NAM 3km only goes out to 60 hours, and the NAM 12km goes out to 84 hours.

Should a forecast indicate very cold temperatures, or cold snowy weather:

The following link is from the Animal Welfare Act, and provides guidelines for temperatures regarding your animal:
ANIMAL WELFARE ACT
https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/ac-tech-note-temp-req-dogs.pdf
CONUS SATELLITE LOOP

WPC 12Z  SURFACE MAP NOV. 10

Analysis this morning indicates cold Polar air has already spread over a good majority of the CONUS.  As strong high pressure continues to build, minimum temperatures are forecast to become much colder, with the coldest minimum temperatures forecast to occur during the morning of Nov. 11, with freezing temperatures reaching as far south as northern portions of Florida, with 30’s and 40’s reaching into S. Florida.   Numerous winter warnings and advisories have been issued by the NWS for most of the eastern half of the CONUS.  Please click the NWS watch and warning display map further on in this synopsis to view ant advisories or statements for your area.

Do not mistake this as an “ARCTIC BLAST”.  Based on the minimum temperature forecast at the moment, this is POLAR air.  The following is from the Weather Prediction website, run by meteorologist Jeff Haby:

• Arctic air tends to be colder than polar air. In the air mass source regions, the temperatures of arctic air can reach far below 0 F, such as in the -30’s to -40’s below zero. Polar air tends to not start out as cold as this. Polar air can be below 0 F but tends to not get down to the extreme cold temperatures that arctic air does. As a consequence, polar air modifies faster to warmer temperatures as it moves into the middle latitudes. In the central and southern U.S., polar air can drop temperatures into the 40’s, 30’s, 20’s and 10’s degree F for example. Arctic air though can drop temperatures into the 10’s, 0’s, and below 0 degree F temperatures in these same regions.
  ECMWF MSLP 48 HOUR FORECAST
  WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS 12Z FORECAST NOV. 11NAM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST NOV. 11, 2025
  
  
  NAM APPARENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST NOV. 11, 2025
  
  
  WUNDERGROUND FROST AND FREEZE FORECAST FOR NOV. 11, 2025
  
  Snowfall totals during the next 120 hours will be greatest over portions of the Great Lakes region, portions of the Ohio Valley, and portions of the NEUS
  ECMWF 120 HOUR FORECAST KUCHERA SNOWFALL TOTALS AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS BY TYPE
  
  
  The following are minimum and apparent temperatures for the succeeding day from the issuance of this synopsis:
  MINIMUM AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOV. 12, 2025
  
  
  APPARENT
  
  
  With the QBO (Quasi Biennial Oscillation) in an easterly phase, it is suggested within the next 2 weeks, we could see a completion of a SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event.  This is based on rising stratospheric temperature and pressure anomalies over the Arctic / Polar region.  These mainly take effect at approximately 60 degrees N Latitude.
  ECMWF 10 MB AND 30 MB TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE ANOMALIES ANIMATION
  
  
  
  
  The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
  NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
  NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
  
  RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
  CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
  
  You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST