Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

Thanks to all of you that still follow my forecasts.  I truly appreciate each and every one of you!

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center, and CSU – MLP forecast maps indicate no severe weather during the next week.
CSU – MLP SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST (LINKED FOR LARGER IMAGES)


I will be using the ECMWF model for the main forecast graphics for winter weather forecasts.  Over my years of forecasting, I prefer this model, as numerous articles depict the ECMWF to be the more accurate model as compared to the GFS.  Here is an excerpt from an article I found:

The ECMWF model’s resolution is 9km or about 5.5 miles. The GFS has a resolution of 25km or roughly 15.5 miles. This resolution is the distance between two points on a grid that the weather model uses. The smaller the number, the better the resolution/quality of a forecast.  The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model is another global numerical weather prediction model that is highly regarded for its accuracy. It employs advanced data assimilation techniques and sophisticated numerical algorithms to simulate atmospheric processes. The ECMWF model provides high-resolution forecasts for various meteorological variables, enabling forecasters to make more precise predictions.  According to current weather forecasting standards, the ECMWF model is generally considered the most accurate for predicting snowfall totals, often performing slightly better than American weather models like the GFS.

For forecast temperatures less than 72 hours out in the forecast period, I prefer using the NAM (North American Mesoscale) model.  This is what we refer to as a regional model, vice a global model, with its forecast grids within the North American continent.  The NAM 3km only goes out to 60 hours, and the NAM 12km goes out to 84 hours.

Should a forecast indicate very cold temperatures, or cold snowy weather:

The following link is from the Animal Welfare Act, and provides guidelines for temperatures regarding your animal:
ANIMAL WELFARE ACT
https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/ac-tech-note-temp-req-dogs.pdf
CONUS SATELLITE LOOP

CONUS / CANADA SATELLITE LOOP

WPC 12Z SURFACE MAP (LINKED TO SURFACE MAP/RADAR ANIMATION)

The QBO is now slowly shifting into the descending, westerly phase according to the recent QBO graph.  This would most likely imply the SSW we have been in may begin to dissipate.  In fact, analysis of the long range 10 – 30 mb temperature and pressure anomalies indicate the SSW to dissipate, after cycling through the current event.  I have sped up the animations to save viewing time.
CURRENT QBO PHASE

How the QBO influences the polar vortex:

• Easterly phase (QBO-E): This phase is associated with a weaker and more disrupted polar vortex. The weaker vortex is less able to contain arctic air, which can then escape and lead to colder outbreaks in lower latitudes.
• Westerly phase (QBO-W): In contrast, the QBO-W phase is linked to a stronger and more stable polar vortex. The following are links to some of the articles regarding the QBO and SSW
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-biennial_oscillationhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming
  
  https://climateimpactcompany.com/quasi-biennial-oscillation-phase-and-sudden-stratospheric-warming-events/https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/atsc/71/1/jas-d-13-096.1.pdf
  00Z ECMWF FORECAST 30 MB TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE ANOMALIES ANIMATION
  
  
  LONG RANGE 30 MB TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE ANOMALIES SHOWING REVERSAL
  
  
  As the next couple of storms / low pressure systems make there way across the U.S. during the next 5 days and the SSW continues to cycle through into another phase prior to dissipating, and given the disruption of  the polar vortex due to the easterly phase of the QBO we have just experienced, the forecast once again calls for another round of very cold Arctic air to intrude over northern and central portions of the U.S., along with heavy snowfall over portions of the north and central regions, Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and N.E. regions of the U.S., with minimum temperatures falling to below zero over portions of the extreme northern central states by Dec. 13, as a forecast Omega block situates over a portion of Alaska and Russia and will aid in channeling Arctic air into the U.S.  This can be seen in the 500 mb and 200 mb charts.  You will also note a deep dip in the jetstream in the 200 mb forecast chart.
  00Z 120 HOUR ECMWF MSLP ANIMATION
  
  ECMWF 00Z 120 HOUR SURFACE WINDS FORECAST
  
  
  ECMWF NORTHERN HEMISPHERE 500 MB FORECAST MAP
  
  200 MB FORECAST MAP (INDICATES JETSTREAM POSITION)
  
  ECMWF TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR DEC. 11 – 13, 2025 ANIMATION
  
  
  The following are forecast snowfall accumulation totals for the next 5 days, and precipitation totals by type.
  ECMWF 120 HOUR FORECAST KUCHERA SNOWFALL TOTALS ANIMATION AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS BY TYPE
  
  
  
  
  The following are minimum temperatures for the succeeding day from the issuance of this synopsis:
  MINIMUM AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES DEC. 10, 2025
  
  
  APPARENT
  
  
  WUNDERGROUND FROST AND FREEZE FORECAST FOR DEC. 10, 2025
  
  WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX DAY 1 – 3 (LINKED FOR INTERACTIVE MAP)
  
  The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
  NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
  
  NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
  
  RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
  CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
  
  You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

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