Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

Thanks to all of you that still follow my forecasts.  I truly appreciate each and every one of you!

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center does not indicate any severe weather probabilities, for the week.  Should a risk be introduced, it will be included in the future synopses.

I will be using the ECMWF model for the main forecast graphics for winter weather forecasts.  Over my years of forecasting, I prefer this model, as numerous articles depict the ECMWF to be the more accurate model as compared to the GFS.  Here is an excerpt from an article I found:

The ECMWF model’s resolution is 9km or about 5.5 miles. The GFS has a resolution of 25km or roughly 15.5 miles. This resolution is the distance between two points on a grid that the weather model uses. The smaller the number, the better the resolution/quality of a forecast.  The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model is another global numerical weather prediction model that is highly regarded for its accuracy. It employs advanced data assimilation techniques and sophisticated numerical algorithms to simulate atmospheric processes. The ECMWF model provides high-resolution forecasts for various meteorological variables, enabling forecasters to make more precise predictions.  According to current weather forecasting standards, the ECMWF model is generally considered the most accurate for predicting snowfall totals, often performing slightly better than American weather models like the GFS.

For forecast temperatures less than 72 hours out in the forecast period, I prefer using the NAM (North American Mesoscale) model.  This is what we refer to as a regional model, vice a global model, with its forecast grids within the North American continent.  The NAM 3km only goes out to 60 hours, and the NAM 12km goes out to 84 hours.

Should a forecast indicate very cold temperatures, or cold snowy weather:

The following link is from the Animal Welfare Act, and provides guidelines for temperatures regarding your animal:
ANIMAL WELFARE ACT
https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/ac-tech-note-temp-req-dogs.pdf
UNITED STATES SATELLITE LOOP

WPC 12Z SURFACE MAP (LINKED TO SURFACE MAP/RADAR ANIMATION)

The QBO graph has not updated since JAN. 21.  The last update indicated the QBO was slowly shifting into a westerly phase.  I have emailed the NASA site responsible for the page updating and brought this to their attention. 
CURRENT QBO PHASE

How the QBO influences the polar vortex:

Easterly phase (QBO-E): This phase is associated with a weaker and more disrupted polar vortex. The weaker vortex is less able to contain arctic air, which can then escape and lead to colder outbreaks in lower latitudes.

Westerly phase (QBO-W): In contrast, the QBO-W phase is linked to a stronger and more stable polar vortex.

The following are links to articles regarding the QBO and SSW:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-biennial_oscillationhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warminghttps://climateimpactcompany.com/quasi-biennial-oscillation-phase-and-sudden-stratospheric-warming-events/

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/atsc/71/1/jas-d-13-096.1.pdf

Though it is unknown what phase the QBO is now actually in, the ECMWF stratosphere temperature and pressure anomalies forecast indicates we are cycling through a Stratospheric warming event.  The large area of warmer temperature anomalies noted east of the Polar region is forecast to “cycle through” toward a more northerly position in relation to the CONUS, becoming more centered over the Polar region in approximately 8 – 10 days.  A sort of “tripole” in warming temperature and pressure anomalies is currently noted.  Although a westerly QBO is linked to a more stable Polar Vortex, strong, breaking planetary waves (Rossby waves), and enhanced convection in the W. Pacific influenced by the MJO can induce warming:

Key factors causing warming during QBO-W:

Strong Planetary Wave Forcing: Intense, upward-propagating Rossby waves can break on top of the polar vortex, inducing rapid warming regardless of the QBO phase.

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): Enhanced convection in the western Pacific, influenced by the MJO, can propagate energy upward, prompting SSW events even in the westerly phase.

El Niño Conditions: While the QBO is a tropical, stratosphere-based driver, the El Niño phase of ENSO can influence the troposphere in ways that weaken the vortex.

Sea Ice Loss: A reduction in sea ice can cause increased upward heat flux, which can lead to warming events.

Energetic Particle Precipitation (EPP): This can affect the upper stratosphere/polar mesosphere, with effects that interact with the QBO.

Ozone Absorption: Increased absorption of solar ultraviolet radiation by ozone can also cause heating

This will continue to create a disruption and weakening in the Polar Vortex, as evidenced by the expansion of warming and higher height anomalies, allowing for dips in the 500 mb level wind pattern and the 250 mb jetstream pattern.
00Z ECMWF 10 MB TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE ANOMALIES 04 FEB. – 09 FEB.


As this setup continues, the current “Omega Block” will transition to more of a “blocking ridge” pattern by FEB 06.  This will still allow for Arctic air to continue over the U.S.

The current Omega block can be seen in the 500 mb and 250 mb charts, and is noted partially loosing the Greek letter “Omega” look .  You will note a deep dip in the jetstream in the 250 mb forecast chart, allowing for cold air to come south.  You will note the differences in the following images between an Omega and Rex block:
OMEGA BLOCK (CLICK FOR EXPLANATION)
ECMWF NORTHERN HEMISPHERE 500 MB FORECAST MAP FOR 12z 04 FEB. AND 12Z 04 FEB.


250 MB FORECAST MAP  (INDICATES JETSTREAM POSITION) 12Z 04 FEB. AND 12Z 06 FEB.


As the current pattern progresses, along with the stratospheric setup, mid level pattern and jetsream pattern during the next 5 – 10 days, Arctic air will continue over portions of the U.S., however it appears we will be in more of a”roller coaster” pattern with temperatures modifying over various portions of the country.  The current forecast calls for freezing temperatures to once again possibly dip south into portions of northern Florida by FEB. 06.
ECMWF SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANIMATION DAY 1 – 5

ECMWF SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANIMATION DAY 5 – 10

By FEB. 05, an area of low pressure is forecast to once again develop off the SEUS coast and move NE, while at the same time an area of low pressure will develop over central Canada, and is forecast to move eastward with a deepening trough extending into the U.S.  As a result of the combination of these 2 low pressure systems, snow will once again affect mainly areas of the the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and NE regions.  Very isolated areas of freezing rain and sleet are in the forecast over small areas of the eastern U.S. and an extremely small portion of the central U.S.  The following you tube video gives a brief explanation of the difference between freezing rain and sleet.
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
https://youtu.be/r0J74ex6Iyo
00Z 120 HOUR ECMWF MSLP ANIMATION

ECMWF 00Z 120 HOUR SURFACE WINDS FORECAST


ECMWF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST

ECMWF MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FEB. 06, 2026


The following are forecast snowfall accumulation totals for the next 5 days, and precipitation totals by type.
ECMWF 120 HOUR FORECAST KUCHERA SNOWFALL TOTALS AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS BY TYPE

FREEZING RAIN

SLEET


FREEZING RAIN

SLEET

The following are minimum temperatures for the succeeding day from the issuance of this synopsis:
NAM 3KM MINIMUM AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEB. 05, 2026


APPARENT TEMPERATURE


WUNDERGROUND FROST AND FREEZE FORECAST FOR FEB. 05, 2026

WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX DAY 1 – 3 (LINKED FOR INTERACTIVE MAP)

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view forecasts, any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST