Ha!l Thought it might get that C name!

Will update with info throughout the day.

So let's focus on 92L for now, til then

visible imagery shows circulation

Weak, but there.

In truth I thought it was a TS last night

....looping before I fell asleep.

Will discuss PTC One-C way below.

Staying with 92L that could become Dolly.

Starting with Mike today and typing while he's talking, as hearing Mike's voice puts me in a good playful mood. These are the players. I like this map, better than the NHC but when they upgrade it to TD (if they do) I'll definitely show "THE CONE" from NHC IF 92L gets an upgrade! 

But I woke up to Invests and to be honest, that's a lot considering how deader than a doornail the Atlantic was expected to be by many. 

I screenshot this because....

to show the actual pattern of this wave train.
So we have new wave in a bright red dress.

Then we have 92L lacking convection

Remnants of last wave near the Islands

Then we see convection N of Hispaniola.

Reason I am showing this...

..it's more likely 92L

follows this pattern.

Often in El Nino years waves battle negative conditions and the strong headwinds coming out of Carib creating shear and as they near the Islands they begin to fall apart. And the shear also in ways redirects them or parts of their convection to the North and they struggle. Sometimes........they struggle so much they lose their Mojo and start to fall apart ...........and then sometimes North of the Islands closer in to  Bahamas or Florida they perk up and come back together sort of reborn, reformed and ready to go.

That is not a forecast, it's a reminder it has happened before and what has happened before tends to happen again when the conditions are similar. So keep it in mind this year.

Back to 92L and Mike's Artwork today.

While convection is a bit lacking.

What convection there is in all the right places.

And you can see it's "form" today.

Will the NHC blink???

Totally true on what he said and I've said it often, nothing like watching a system come together in real time. It's truly amazing to those of us who enjoy all parts of the process of tropical formation. Loving formation does not equate with making landfall and doing horrific damage. Most people who follow me and Mike and others online have been hit by a hurricane and once hit by a hurricane, you become a little paranoid and want as much info in advance that you can get. That probably applies to Mike and I as we have grown up with hurricanes as Florida kids and knowledge is power and it gives you a head's up to get your plan in place should a tropical system comes knocking at your door! You won't be standing there at the store looking at empty shelves with nothing left on them but canned oysters!

Something different from Windy.com

Let's look at "rain accumulation" modeling.