I guess they are sure....

...they upped chances to 30%

So let's look at Africa next.

So we are just gonna wait and watch.

Way too soon to carve Fish Storm onto it.

Many have, many will not.

Will post models on Sunday.

By that time it should be an Invest.

Many take it out to sea....

...some bend it back at a higher latitude later.

Time will tell.

By every measure of meteorological measurement, Fall has moved in like a noisy new neighbor and had Summer evicted here in my neck of the woods. Many old time Mets would say that once we are decorated with fronts moving across the Nation and down into the Gulf that the Hurricane Season is pretty much over. I'll say that it transitions into the time of year that Monster Hurricanes such as Mitch, Matthew and Sandy incubate down in the Caribbean, form into monsters and work their way North where and when they can as every hurricane (especially the strong ones) want to move North towards the North Pole. That is there function in that they transfer energy from the equator to the Poles. 

Add in after Erin's long rampage through the Atlantic, often as a Major Hurricane, moving far UP into the North Atlantic she in fact helped the process that released cold, dry air on her back side down into the Carolinas and even into parts of Florida. There's a connection between that set up that you learn about in Meteorology.  Dave Schwartz used to say on TWC "what goes up, must come down" like the old song goes and indeed on the back side cold air (if it's up there) is released down, down into the lower 48 states.

Labor Day Weekend is here. Labor Day is usually the "end of the Summer" and as you noticed bikinis and sandals are on sale everywhere! Use some of those sales to stock up on supplies for hurricane season as it is not over until November 30th and often the meanest monster Canes form in the depth of Fall when fronts are on the move. Fronts always up the ante. 

If a hurricane is approaching the East Coast from the ESE a front will grab it and run with it out to sea.

If a hurricane forms in the Carib, from an old tropical wave that couldn't find traction until it got close to the Yucatan it will ride up into the Gulf and slam into Florida as Michael did or across the Florida as Wilma did when she caught a late season diving front and on the back side, after her winds tore at whatever trees were left standing after Katrina weakened them it knocked them all down. The power lines that were patched together with yellow "caution tape" were ignored by Wilma and away with the wind went out power again. 

So it's all a matter of perspective as to whether Fall and fronts kill off the Hurricane Season or if they ratchet Hurricane Season up to a way wilder level! Let's explore a few below.