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A Look Down the Tropical Road at Models. Early Season Low Lat Wave Train Forming... What's Up With That? Alvin May Form in the EPAC. Odd Area off SE Coast...

2 months ago 51

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Well there is no storm out there...

...not even a disturbance.

But note everything coming together ....

...setting up for Westbound Tropical Waves.

Low latitude wave like features have been visible.

A convergence of wind barbs all going one way!

Everything to the North is Eastbound.

ITCZ moves West currently.

Til the entrance to the Carib...

..where everything is sucked up to the North.

Let's see how long that continues. 

Could lead to interesting formations.

Common this time of year to see a collision of sorts.

No not like the Brooklyn Bridge.....

...North of PR and East of The Bahamas.

*more on this down below............

Long range models show possibilities.

SW Carib is a place to watch.

Tho what begins there often ends in the EPAC.

MJO is set to show in the EPAC...

count a week or so then it's in the Carib.

The EURO.... is acting like the GFS.

It shows a system off the Mexican coast.

May 29th.

EURO goes with Landfall actually.

Day before our Season begins.

1st name is Alvin in the EPAC.

EURO also shows an odd system off SE Coast.

Prime time area for early Subtropical Storms.

Not predicting that, just reminding you it's a thing.

The GFS however...........

has a flash of color in the Caribbean.

June 1st basically.

EURO shows Alvin and something off SE Coast. 

Let's say an area of unsettled weather.

EURO shows the area.......

....and a front.

How fast would the front be moving ?

Way out in time.

Just peeking at the models.

So now I have talked models and long range possibilities for the start of the Hurricane Season. 

Now I want to talk just a bit about the present. Today, tomorrow and what's actually worth looking at and thinking on as we transition towards the Hurricane Season 14 days away. No it's not the Loch Ness Monster. Not a leaping dolphin neither. 

*You can see the area North of PR.

I mentioned it up above....

Curvature look to it today.

It's drawing up deep tropical moisture.

Linkage goes all the way to South America!

On the Water Vapor it looks like a donut.

Hard to ignore that so mentioning it.

Will just keep watching it....

Lastly it's common to see Africa shoot blanks ...

...early in the season.

Cute wave like structures that battle their way West.

Water not as warm out there as it is in the Gulf.

But it does catch our attention.

Could we get an early season as we did last year?

I would not count it out.

What's actually weird is..........

...Africa looks like it's ready.

Maybe it thinks its July?

Feels hot enough today in the Carolinas...

As my buddy Dabuh always reminds me...

...check the time stamp and so I did.

What's up with that indeed?

Lastly............... really horrific set up yesterday. Horrific, tragic and deadly and the death toll climbs as they go through the rubble. Just really not much to say other than a reminder that tornadoes don't just dance out on the Plains and they can rip their way through a densely populated city and somehow we are always are surprised. Very sad. Prayers to everyone out there that has lost anyone, their home, parts of their home, their job and most probably their sanity. Hurricanes are easier in that we can prepare our home and our minds for a hurricane or tropical storm we track for days with a cone that can go out 7 days if needed. We can prepare and make decisions. Tornadoes just happen. Finger of God ... some call them. Dropping out of the sky, ripping up lives with very little warning. 

And, Severe Weather Season is NOT over and the chance for more tornadoes, a derecho and heavy flooding rains along with deadly cloud to ground lightning strikes will show up in the forecast regularly as two seasons often collide. And, in this case Twister Season collides with Hurricane Season for a while. 

So stay tuned and watch your weather carefully as it's that time of year that often gives us a higher death toll from one tornado than we get from many low end hurricanes and tropical storms. 

As Mother Nature gives you time to prepare for Hurricane Season ........please take advantage of that time and prepare.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever.

My strange mind.........

1. How long did they do their hair to get it like that?

2. 1967 odd year... long trackers mostly weak storms.

Beulah, right.........Texas. 

ps 18 tropical depressions..........

3. I always thought this song was:

"give me some summer loving"

LOL

Easy to be silly in May.

Nothing really happening yet.

Have a good week!

Will start with various predictions Monday Morning!

Besos BobbiStorm






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