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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
Good day everyone!
Though there remains a MARGINAL risk for severe weather today, and a SLIGHT risk tomorrow, I wanted to focus on the severe weather for Sunday. Please refer to the SPC Homepage link further on in this synopsis for today and tomorrow’s severe weather.
The following is a preliminary synopsis.
Based on the new CSU – MLP forecast map, and this mornings analysis, I cannot rule out the SPC upgrading a small area to MODERATE within the ENHANCED risk outline between now and Sunday, if indices do not change or increase.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a ENHANCED risk for severe thunderstorms in the current DAY 3 Outlook: FROM ILLINOIS/INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VICINITY…
…SPC SUMMARY…
A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected.
SPC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CATEGORY AND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK (LINKED)
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point
The following is the current CSU – MLP severe weather forecast map:
CSU – MLP DAY 3 FORECAST (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)
DAY 3 PROBABILITY CONVERSION TABLE
The following is from the current SPC DAY 3 Outlook:
…DISCUSSION…
…Lower Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys…
A broad/moist but initially capped airmass is forecast to expand across much of the eastern half of the U.S. Sunday, ahead of the advancing cold front. Daytime heating, and continued northward flux of low-level moisture will result in a moderate destabilization.
Scattered storms may be ongoing across portions of Missouri northeastward to the Wisconsin area at the start of the period, and possibly in a more isolated manner southwestward into Texas. Local severe risk may accompany this early-day convection. The aforementioned destabilization that is expected should support renewed storm development near the advancing cold front — initially from Illinois southwestward to East Texas, and then spreading eastward/expanding in coverage with time.
Along with the favorable thermodynamic environment within which the storms will be evolving, highly favorable shear will also exist, with low-level southerly/southwesterly flow veering and increasing substantially with height yielding curved — and then elongated — hodographs. Supercells are expected within this environment, and very large hail is expected given the cold air/steep lapse rates through the mid troposphere. Along with the hail risk, damaging wind gusts are expected — particularly where upscale growth into bands occurs. Additionally, this setup appears very favorable for tornadoes, a few of which may be strong/potentially long-lived.
Risk will spread eastward with time into the evening/overnight. Some diminishing of the risk should occur late into the upper Ohio Valley, but vigorous storms and all-hazards risk will likely continue through the end of the period across the Tennessee Valley/Gulf Coast states.
Based on my analysis of the most recent severe weather indices this morning, the forecast currently calls for a high end moderately unstable, to very unstable atmosphere for Sunday, and a likely regional severe weather outbreak may be in the forecast. ALL severe weather risks will be probable based on the values analyzed. Based on CAPE, L.I., and deep layer shear, and steep mid level lapse rates, large to significant diameter hail is likely. Based on forecast DCAPE of 1000+ (Downdraft CAPE), damaging straight line thunderstorm winds and gusts are likely . Based on the indices regarding tornadoes, where the lower of indices will be located, EF2 – EF3 tornadoes may be likely, while with the highest 0 – 3 km SRH and EHI values, some long track, EF4 – EF5 tornadoes may be experienced. Based on current animations, it appears severe storms will initiate by approximately 1:00 p.m. CDT, with the strongest storms approximately from 4:00 P.M. CDT MAR. 30 – 1:00 A.M. CDT MAR. 31. Based on this information, and information contained in the SPC outlook, this could become a Particularly Dangerous Situation and potentially deadly, and could warrant possible PDS tornado watches sometime Sunday afternoon through late evening. Based on this, I recommend plans are ready to go in case this arises. I will be monitoring this closely.
Indices were analyzed from the NAM 3KM, CIPS DETERMINISTIC, and SPC SREF, and global model guidance. The HRRR 3KM does not go out past 18 hours in the forecast period.
The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning, with the max. values pertaining to the ENHANCED risk and SIGNIFICANT hatched area. Based on analysis of the modeling, the strongest indices at the moment appear to be within the red shaded outline in the CSU – MLP map shown above, and especially within the hatched circle in the same map. Some indices meanings are posted below the indices themselves, and the NWS page containing a more extensive explanation can be accessed further on in the synopsis:
SBCAPE: 1750 – 3500 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 1500 – 3000 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 2000 – 4000 j/kg-1
SRH 0 -1 km: 150 – 250 m2/s2
SRH 0 -3 km: 200 – 400 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE: 100 – 200 m2/s2
L. I.: -4 to -9
SCP: 8– 14
STP: 1.1 – 4.7
0 -6 km SHEAR: 50 kts – 60 kts
EFF. SHEAR: 40 kts – 50 kts
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 7.5C – 8.5C
DEWPOINT: 63F – 72F
EHI: 2.8 – 5.6
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 57 – 59
K INDEX: 28C – 34C
SWEAT INDEX: 575 – 625
THOMPSON INDEX: 32 – 43
CRAVEN – BROOKS INDEX: 30,000 – 60,000
CAPE
ENERGY HELICITY INDEX
K INDEX
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
LIFTED INDEX
SWEAT VALUES
THOMPSON INDEX
Craven SigSvr Parameter:
The simple product of 100mb MLCAPE and 0-6km magnitude of the vector difference (m/s; often referred to as “deep layer shear”) accounts for the compensation between instability and shear magnitude. Using a database of about 60,000 soundings, the majority of significant severe events (2+ inch hail, 65+ knot winds, F2+ tornadoes) occur when the product exceeds 20,000 m3/s3.
A little fact on SRH values and tornadoes from NOAA / NWS
A little fact on SRH values and tornadoes from NOAA / NWS
Storm Relative Helicity (m2 s-2)
SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) is a measure of the potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in right-moving supercells, and is calculated for the lowest 1-km and 3-km layers above ground level. There is no clear threshold value for SRH when forecasting supercells, since the formation of supercells appears to be related more strongly to the deeper layer vertical shear. Larger values of 0-3-km SRH (greater than 250 m2 s-2) and 0-1-km SRH (greater than 100 m2 s-2), however, do suggest an increased threat of tornadoes with supercells. For SRH, larger values are generally better, but there are no clear thresholds between non-tornadic and significant tornadic supercells.
STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.
SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.
The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM model. Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and / or tornadic activity over an area:
NAM 3KM SCP FORECAST 1:00 P.M. CDT MAR. 30 – 7:00 P.M. CDT MAR. 30, 2025
NAM 3KM STP FORECAST 1:00 P.M. CDT MAR. 30 – 7:00 P.M. CDT MAR. 30, 2025
A term / value during low buoyancy (CAPE below 1000) and high shear called SHERB (Severe Hazards in an Environment with Reduced Buoyancy) is used to indicate where the best probability could be for tornado activity. Values of 1.0+ indicate where the tornadic activity may have the best probability.
Although EFFSHERB does not apply for this synopsis based on CAPE values, NADOCAST maps don’t update until the morning of the severe weather event and due to this, I am posting them to give a better idea of where tornado activity may occur. Only regard the values which align the with SPC tornado outline
EFFSHERB 4:00 P.M. CDT MAR. 30
7:00 P.M. CDT MAR. 30
Another severe weather term known as CWASP (Craven-Wiedenfeld Aggregate Severe Parameter) is used to indicate where the greatest probability of EF2+ events MAY occur:
This aggregate parameter is the sum of 33 individual weighted parameters, ranging from mandatory pressure level winds, temperature and moisture, to CAPE and vertical shear. Typical ranges of values were established for each parameter in association with significant tornado (EF2+) events, and a numerical weight of 0-3 was assigned to each parameter. If all parameters are consistent with historical EF2+ tornado events, the CWASP total will reach a maximum value of 99. The majority of EF2+ tornadoes have occurred with CWASP values above about 70.
This will basically give you an average.
CWASP 4:00 P.M. CDT MAR. 30
CWASP 7:00 P.M. CDT MAR. 30
I have provided the SPC homepage link below, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices
THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST