Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
PLEASE keep the residents of Texas in your prayers regarding the terrible flash flooding tragedy and those lost.

I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you read in the entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.  This forecast is graphics intense.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   5
TOTAL HURRICANES:         1
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


Africa satellite loop imagery still has a glitch.
MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE

ERIN is now a CAT 2 hurricane.  The following information was available on ERIN as of the 11:00 a.m. advisory from the NHC:
11:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 19
Location: 25.6°N; 72.4°W
Moving: NW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 961 mb / 28.38 in.
Max sustained: 105 mph

You’ll notice in satellite imagery that ERIN has become less symmetric.  This is attributed to an slight increase in wind shear out of the WNW of around 15 – 20 kts, and disruption of the circulation due to dry air entrainment in the NW quad of the hurricane, noted in water vapor imagery by the orange / red colors.
ERIN SATELLITE LOOP


ERIN’S wind field is forecast to expand in size, thus the watches, warnings, and statements issued by the NHC and local NWS offices.  I highly recommend clicking the NWS HAZARDS map for your area, which is at the end of this forecast page.
PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/191453.shtml?

AVISO PUBLICO
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT5+shtml/191454.shtml?

NWS LOCAL HURRICANE STATEMENTS LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls_at5+shtml/191528.shtml?

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

NHC KEY MESSAGES

I HIGHLY RECOMMEND READING THE FOLLOWING BRIEFING ON ERIN from the NWS office from Newport / Morehead City, NC.  Click the link.
https://www.weather.gov/media/mhx/LatestBriefing.pdf

ERIN is currently moving toward the NW. Analysis of the most recent steering layer map clearly shows the ridge / trough setup.  Based on a quick look last night, the ridge over the U.S. and the one east of ERIN became somewhat stronger, and the trough did as well, extending a little further south than what was projected by global models in earlier runs.  Based on that, the westward component of ERIN pretty much came to a stop, and because of this, she has slowed considerably.  Based on analysis of the current steering layer, and forecast steering maps, save any changes in the forecast of the ridge / trough pattern, ERIN SHOULD continue to the NW, with the eventual turn north, the to the NE.  Based on this, I agree with the 12Z track guidance, and am in line with the TVCA model and NHC forecast track.
ERIN 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

RECENT STEERING LAYER MEAN FROM CIMSS

NHC AND HURRTRACKER FORECAST MAPS



CIMSS ADT WIND RADII

The following are projected wave heights for ERIN from the WAVEWATCH Wave forecast model:
WAVEWATCH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION 120 HOURS

The environment surrounding ERIN is still somewhat favorable, even though there has been an increase slightly in vertical shear.  The center has become a little displaced to the NW, and is just on the edge of the convection.  This and the dry air entrainment has caused her to weaken.  Based on these conditions, the hurricane would be expected to continue slow weakening.  However, SHIPS diagnostics and dynamic guidance call for another reduction in shear in about 12 hours, with very favorable TPW and mid level RH.  Given the upper level outflow pattern, this may allow for ERIN to recover briefly, and a short period of brief re-intensification could occur.  Wind shear is forecast to once again increase by 72 hours, to the point of creating unfavorable conditions.  Based on this, I do agree with the NHC updated intensity forecast.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

I will continue to monitor the situation for any significant changes during the next 48 – 72 hours.

Elsewhere, the NHC has designated a MEDIUM (60%) probability for development of the Tropical Wave SW of the Cape Verde islands during the next 7 days.  The ECMWF EPS probability is indicating a 75% probability:
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST 24 – 72 HOURS

The wave is moving slowly toward the west, and could fluctuate between W to WNW in motion, and should continue on this motion for the next 24 – 36 hours.  Sometime thereafter, due to the current weakness in the subtropical ridge, and the slow movement of ERIN, ERIN will allow for a weakness to remain in the western portion of the subtropical ridge, and the wave may very well follow the path of ERIN.  Current conditions are marginal for very slow development.  Satellite loop imagery indicates the system is still very disorganized.  Based on current lower convergence, upper divergence and vorticity maps, a “center” relocation a little further south and under the convection cannot be ruled out.  You’ll note the latest wind pattern from the most recent ASCAT pass
EATL SATELLITE LOOP


Based on analysis of the global models, forecast conditions should improve with development of a radial shear pattern, and somewhat of an increase in precipitable water and mid level relative humidity during the next 72 hours.  Thereafter, an increase in wind shear is forecast, along with an elongation of the precipitable water field and mid level RH field, with a slight reduction in values of both.  Based on this, I still agree with the NHC in that a depression could slowly develop by the end of the week but I think it may struggle, and thereafter, chances should drop.

I will continue to monitor this system very closely during the next 72 hours.

Elsewhere, INVEST 99L has been introduced into the picture, with the NHC designating a LOW (30%) probability for development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO LINKED

Current satellite loop imagery indicates a fairly good looking system
INVEST 99L SATELLITE LOOP

This system is currently moving toward the west.  As of the 12Z ATCF BTK update, the following was available on INVEST 99L:
8:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 19
Location: 13.1°N; 21.6°W
Moving: W at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb / 29.83 in.
Max sustained: 35 mph
INVEST 99L initial motion is west (275 degrees).  Based on analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps however, this should change to a brief motion toward the WSW within the next 24 hours, prior to becoming more westward in about 48 – 72 hours.  Given the southward dip in the forecast, there would exist a slim probability, should this amount to anything, of the system approaching the Caribbean.  However, this is too early to tell, given the system is in the initialization stage as far as modeling is concerned.  Based on this, I currently prefer the TVCA consensus model.
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

The NHC states conditions appear generally favorable for development over the next couple of days, however conditions I analyzed on this mornings model runs, seem to indicate marginal conditions at the moment, which MAY improve somewhat during the next 48 hours.  Models do not yet indicate any low pressure in the forecast maps, however I will continue to monitor this as it moves westward over the next few days.

Elsewhere, I am not expecting any development for the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you too the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS