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Gabrielle forecast to be a Major tomorrow.
Out to sea is what they say at NHC
As the sun rises on beautiful Gabby...
...tight little eye.
Far away ... definitely beautiful.
As I have said.
Crappy waves in slow seasons.......
......often do well at higher latitudes
Spin pretty as big Atlantic Hurricanes...
...before going out to sea.
Whole picture below!
Cone below
I bet you can tell which one I'm concerned on.
No...not the 70% red
but the orange 30% might form closer in.
This is not to say that the closer in system, closer to the Islands and more of a chance that it could impact our weather, while the red hot 70% should follow Gabrielle out to sea. How close and how strong the orange area closer to our coasts with less room to turn fast IF it forms closer in ...
This might get complicated. I'll be offline for High Holy Days til Wednesday evening. For Miami follow Phil Ferro he is incredible, helpful, smooth and doesn't try and panic people but is serious when he needs to be. He answers questions online politely, wisely. He's the real thing. In Carolinas all those people I follow and talk to from Mitch (SC) to Allan Huffman (NC) and of course there's Mike who covers it all if anything develops. Word has it he was testing his truck to make sure everything in good shape, in case he goes chasing closer in.
Either way from Hurricane Gabrielle, that could go Major, to Humbero maybe ...watch out for surf. Dabuh always has surf and music and follow your local NWS.
I'll update later today after the 2 PM so keeping it short now. Basics below.
Mimic...
This is what we call a backloaded season.
Wave train off Africa
Going where they go.
SW Carib and Bahamas moist.
Water temperatures warm.
Pay Close attn to NHC.
Models as of Monday Morning.......... you can look back at this and hopefully laugh. Euro is conservative but does show the closer in wave should be watched (weaker goes further left, stronger more of a chance of a curve) ... new ready to roll red hot should follow Gabrielle... Erin sort of path but turn out to sea. Think football, play defense!!
Don't you feel they always start out this way.
GFS This is 9/28 by the way.
Will change tons by Wednesday night.
So just kind of "oh okay" GFS
GFS has a wish list by the way.
Think of it like when ppl make gift lists...
...post them "for my birthday I'd love this"
How many do you actually get?
Cuba... Florida
Jamaica seems off this list.
Who knows...
...all the places the GFS likes to go.
My bottom line is this...
Later a wave forms closer in the more of a problem it is to avoid landfall. Should that wave develop into a mean lean tropical depression well formed, vertically stacked, they can turn into monsters over the warm Gulf stream. Katrina POOF ... that was earlier in the year in August tho as was Andrew and Labor Day was well Labor Day. Fronts should show back up in time for a save. So keep that in mind, as models will model the way you play fetch with a cute golden retriever ...
Thanks for reading.........think good thoughts!!! Stay prepared always.......not over til end of November
Will add in song at 2 PM Update. Want to see new models and see how strong Gabrielle will be then...
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