Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
Tomorrows forecast will be issued tomorrow afternoon as I have to have brakes done on my vehicle in the a.m.  I will be out of the office Oct. 03, Oct. 06 and Oct. 7 for family events.  Today’s forecast will be on IMELDA, and beginning tomorrow, forecasts will focus on future activity.  I will pick back up on IMELDA should forecast conditions indicate any significant changes.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   9
TOTAL HURRICANES:         4
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

Tropical Storm IMELDA has strengthened into a hurricane.  Though reports from the 5:00 a.m. discussion indicate the low level structure has improved, IMELDA has become a little more elongated based on satellite loop imagery.  Water vapor imagery indicates the hurricane is now beginning to be affected by dry intrusion to the west and south of the system, with a dry slot noted in the SE quad.
HURRICANE IMELDA SATELLITE LOOP



As of the 11:00 A.M. advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on Hurricane IMELDA.  
11:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 30
Location: 29.1N;76.6W
Moving: NE 7 mph
Min pressure: 980 mb / 28.94 in.
Max sustained: 80 mph

NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/301456.shtml?
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/301453.shtml

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings have been issued for the following locations:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

NHC  GRAPHICS


Tropical Storm IMELDA was currently moving to the NE.  Based on my analysis of updated forecast steering, Imelda should now follow the forecast track guidance, as ALL dynamic, statistical – dynamic, consensus, and hurricane forecast models are now in very tight agreement, with latest track guidance showing a very tight cluster.
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z ATCF GUIDANCE

HURRICANE MODELS FORECAST  GUIDANCE

HUMBERTO is now having an effect on the steering layer, creating a stronger weakness, with IMELDA now caught by the trough that has been forecast.  IMELDA has begun the turn to the NE.  Based on analysis of forecast steering, I expect this motion to continue with a bend more toward the NNE after 72 hours before resuming a more NE motion. Based on this, I agree with the NHC forecast track.
NHC FORECAST TRACK MAP

HURRTRACK graphics have been discontinued for IMELDA

Hurricane IMELDA is under some wind shear of around 20 – 25 kts, as the radial shear pattern remains off center from the center of the storm.  You can note however in satellite loop imagery, although convection appears to strengthening, the LLC appears slightly exposed.
CIMSS RECENT WIND SHEAR

In addition, upper level outflow has deteriorated to a single outflow channel to the north.  Given this setup of shear and upper level flow, the upper level flow may be strong enough to offset the shear somewhat, however this will remain to be seen.  Models have done a less than sufficient job at the radial shear pattern forecast with this system.  Though one is established, it is not located over the center of the storm.
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS

IMELDA WIND RADII

Analysis of global models indicates wind shear to continue to slowly increase during the next 24 hours, while SHIPS diagnostics indicates a brief drop in about 12 hours, with shear increasing to 20 kts again, and after 24 hours, shear continues to increase to unfavorable levels throughout the remainder of the forecast to around 50 kts in 72 hours.

Based on this, though I currently agree with the NHC intensity forecast at the moment, and the NHC mentions continued strengthening and sites a little more favorable conditions that what the current global model runs are indicating, I feel this may be hard for the system to accomplish, given the forecast of continued dry air intrusion and shear, unless upper level outflow can overcome the shear, until we get to the portion of the forecast where a “sting jet” is forecast to allow for favorable trough interaction.  My take is that, there could be a small increase in intensity in the very short term, or intensity may hold steady, up until the point the jet begins to develop and eventually becomes solid.  Though I agree with forecast strength, I feel the rate will be a little slower up until the point mentioned.
ECMWF 700 MB FORECAST 36 – 48 HOURS (YELLOW ARROW INDICATES STING JET)


STING JET ARTICLE LINK
https://www.severe-weather.eu/learnweather/severe-weather-theory/what-is-a-sting-jet-mk/
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

From the National Hurricane Center:
KEY MESSAGES:

ECMWF AND WAVEWATCH 3 FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS

RIP CURRENTS


I will continue to monitor IMELDA for any significant changes for forecast conditions during the next 48 – 72 hours.

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS