91L is the wave to the rear.

To it's N is an ULL

There's another one NE or PR

A wave with convection out in front of it.

High Pressure.

Every thing swirls in motion as you can see.

It's not the most pristine environment.

And it's moving 5 - 10 MPH West.

The main point today is that as it has been marked low and is slow to get it's act together and slow development keeps it low. Models have pulled more to the West...staying lower in the short term. At some point this finds a way to move up to the North ...tho much depends on how strong it is and where it is when it gets stronger. 

So what can I say today?

Models show current expectations.

There's some to the North...

...some to the South.

And some in between.

A lot of agreement!

As for intensity expectations.

Oh, just about everything.

We are in the earliest time period with this wave that is already an Invest and will eventually develop into a Hurricane. Currently there is a 60% chance it could develop in 2 days! 90% in 7 days. This seems to be a done deal! Currently, we are concentrating on short term problems such as it making landfall somewhere In the Islands, unless something huge changes.