May 1st! 1 Month to go til 2025 Hurricane Season! 2017 an Analog Year for 2025. Hope That Helps You be Hurricane Strong........and Prepare!

3 months ago 35

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Raleigh has been hot the last few days.

Florida has been hot too...

What hit me was that 2017 was another hot year...

...and 2017 is an analog year for this year.

CSU chose the analog years below for this year.

There's a tremendous amount of analytical, research work put into the Colorado State University's forecast so when I see this year lines up with that year I feel it puts more weight on that horrendous hurricane year's presence in the CSU analog years. They don't just throw years in a hat nor do they pick and choose, it's very data based and if you read the report you will see all the data!

Aside for the oddball Tropical Storm Arlene early before the Season began, the year seemed rather quiet thru June and July when a few short lived storms formed. It was all the way into August before we saw a hurricane and then........we saw them nonstop and everyone was busy tracking, researching, chasing and trying to recover from Harvey, Irma and Maria. We always remember the Cat 4 and Cat 5s and yet most people forget the small, short lived tropical storms.

Another interesting data point is that 2017 was a Neutral year as this year is predicted to be. All Neutral years are either heading towards La Nina or heading towards El Nino, they are swing years but on their own they can produce dangerous hurricanes. Note the quotes from Wikipedia below describing this issue that I remember well as everyone online was trying to forecast which way Neutral would go and they are not always easy to forecast in exactitude. Sometimes a La Nina begins to develop as it did in 2017 and other times they are just Neutral and that too is a statistic!

"Initial predictions for the season anticipated that an El Niño would develop, lowering tropical cyclone activity. However, the predicted El Niño failed to develop, with cool-neutral conditions developing instead, later progressing to a La Niña—the second one in a row. This led forecasters to raise their predicted totals in late May, with some later anticipating that the season could be the most active since 2010."

This concept of "Neutral" vs El Nino or La Nina always reminds me of the scene in the Wizard of Oz when Glinda asks Dorothy "are you a good witch or a bad witch" and she replies she is Dorothy Gale from Kansas. How many of you remember her name was Dorothy Gale? It's okay, as few remember Bret, Don or Rina from the 2017 Hurricane Season; only Harvey, Irma and Maria are lodged in our brains forever.

If you'd like to spend some time this May reading the CSU Hurricane Season Forecast put out on April 3rd the link is below. It'll be updated on June 11th, 2025.

Remember every year has it's Cat 4s and Cat 5s.

Every year has it's "Fish Storms" out at sea.

And every year has names we never forget...

...and names we never remember.