Literally a wrecking ball.

It was intensifying last night when I went to sleep. I knew I would wake up to this and yet until you actually see the advisory, the perfect round CDO of Melissa with her eye staring back at you it's not really real. This rapid Intensification reminds me constantly of Andrew and it's reminded me of the disbelief as we watched it escalate in real time and be crowned with the CAT FIVE crown and while everyone was talking on the details your mind just begins to flood with a million possible images of what will be down the road. Would Miami Beach ever look the same? Would Downtown Miami ever look the same? Visions of destruction dance through your head and it almost immobolizes you and yet at the same time you are boarding up, shopping, trying to find the necessities on shelves that have already been cleared by the first people who were terrified and ran to the market. Gas lines around the block. ATMs out of cash. Relatives calling asking if you are really get that hurricane? Debates on where to go and at the same time aware that no one was absolutely sure where Andrew would make landfall. Most insist the media was clear it would be "Downtown Miami" while others insisted "the Countyline" area between Miami Dade County and Broward County. No one had Homestead on their BINGO Card!!

Yes, Homestead most definitely was in the Cone, but it was not the where Andrew was rolling due West. And the funny part is the Homestead area to the South of Miami has been hit directly by strong hurricanes more than the actual "Downtown" Miami area or Miami Beach. There was a hurricane in the 40s. Bryan Norcross insists the 1926 Miami Hurricane made landfall closer to Palmetto Bay which was near where Andrew made landfall. And, yes Andrew made landfall to the South far from Countyline or Downtown Miami. Not very far, but far enough to make all the difference. 

The wind blows steady before a hurricane, endless as if a huge fan was hoisted out over the water and it's on high. It's not gusting as much as relentlessly blowing, the water gets wild and pounds towards the beach even when it's far out at sea still. Spray and foam and all those things you rarely see on the soft, tropical, balmy beaches of Miami Beach. It tugs at your skirt, your hair flies about in all directions and you stand there in awe staring. 

Andrew, as many know, bobbled to the South a bit at the very last minute, and that made all the difference. And, that happens often ........especially with a Cat 5 Hurricane as the eye literally wobbles about within the general track. Like a spinning top you give a small child that spins, bobbles a bit, spins until it finally spins down. It'll be a long time before Hurricane Melissa spins down and she is forecast to slam into Cuba as a Major and keep on going as she picks up forecast faster speed.

And I am not saying anything negative about the NHC but it's all a forecast and forecasts usually have their hiccup, their bobble South in Andrew's case that is hard to forecast. And, yet the NHC try their best with all the data they can put into the models and with the wisdom of the forecasters and yet hurricanes move in real time they are not computer generated AI graphics that can be designed. 

Like Hurricane Georges it doesn't seem to want to turn and continues West, at times last night a bit South of Due West. Eventually Georges did turn but it was way past where it was forecast to originally. And, that was years ago and we have way better modeling, better satellite imaging, AI models, etc......

Hurricanes will do what they do and it only makes sense in the rear view mirror. And, while the world watches the people of Jamaica are dealing with the reality of this nightmare.

I'll update after 11 AM advisory!