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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!

I know it probably seems like a broken record regarding the special tropical outlooks, however Accuweather happened to make a mention of this yesterday:
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/gyre-could-jump-start-tropical-activity-ahead-of-hurricane-season/1772197

This special Tropical Weather Outlook is not to panic anyone, hype anything,  jump the gun or even guarantee anything will develop.  I look at it this way, it’s no worse than the NHC tagging a yellow circled area with a 0% probability of development. 

As promised, while we’ve been going through quite a bit of severe weather, I have also been keeping an eye on the tropics.  Something new to speak of that will be close by…The ECMWF has now come up with a low probability for development in the Gulf.  A few days ago, the GFS did develop a weak system, but has backed off.  Both the ECMWF and GFS however, do indicate a lowering of surface pressures, and a very weak surface low is possible.  Based on analysis, humidity values are favorable, however I am not expecting any “development” due to the forecast of strong SWLY wind shear and short time over the water. 
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY


ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST



Elsewhere, this has been going on for the past 4 days, The update of the ECMWF EPS cyclone formation probability forecast 12Z run has indicated around the 144 – 216 ( 6 – 9 day, MAY 14 – 17) hour time in the forecast period, it appears there could be a medium probability for some type of development in the extreme W. Caribbean Sea.  During the past 4 days, the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Probability model has been fluctuating on probabilities between low to medium and exact location, fluctuating between the extreme W. Caribbean near Panama, to the EPAC. I am using 2 different sights for contrast:
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST 12Z RUN



Based on my analysis, a half decent probability may exist to possibly see something try to spin up just north of Panama or, in the EPAC west of the central America isthmus, in the mentioned time frame.  Based on the analysis of the 850 mb winds forecast of the ECMWF and ECMWF EPS charts, it appears that a weak signal of the CAG (Central American Gyre) will appear in the area, as noted by counter-clockwise turning in the wind field:
CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE (LINKED):

In my opinion, I feel the issue with the modeling pinpointing a more exact location may be due to the CAG being more of a broad circulation, to 2 different circulations…one located in the EPAC, and the other north of Panama.
ECMWF AND GFS 850 MB FORECAST


The current CHI200 anomalies forecast indicates very robust upward motion (strong divergence) in the upper atmosphere (200 mb) which is favorable for development.  The area will also be under the influence of the Right Rear Entrance region of a 200 mb jetstreak, which promotes divergence in the upper atmosphere (another positive factor).
ECMWF AND GFS CHI 200 ANOMALIES FORECAST


The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is currently forecast to be in PHASE 8 at the time.
MJO FORECAST ACCESS – S2 MODEL (33 MEMBER)

The following chart is Tropical Cyclone Density in relation to MJO phases.  The left side of the chart represents actual observations and the right side is model predictions from 1989 – 2008.  Red and orange colors represent cyclone development.
TROPICAL CYCLONE DENSITY MJO PHASES 8 AND 1

Forecast relative humidity values are still forecast to be favorable from the surface to the mid levels of the atmosphere, and precipitable water (PWAT) values will be more than ample.  To save room, I am using the GFS RH map as the ECMWF does not have a 4 panel map for the Caribbean).  For tropical development, the ideal RH values are 60%+ from the surface up to 500 mb:
GFS RH FORECAST

ECMWF AND GFS PWAT FORECAST

Wind shear is once again forecast to reduce to a favorable level with a slight radial outflow pattern, which is favorable.  A radial shear pattern basically implies little to no shear over a system.
ECMWF AND GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST


So once again, conditions (although not optimal) look fairly favorable for possible development during the next 7 – 10 days.  The GFS no longer indicates a fully developed cyclone, however both the ECMWF and GFS does indicate a slight lowering of MSLP anomalies.  We should see  better accuracy in the global models once we fall into the 5 day forecast period. Again, this DOES NOT GUARANTEE we will see anything, but keep in mind the early development we’ve seen over the past few seasons, and that we now begin issuing Tropical Weather Outlooks on MAY 15.  Again, not hyping…just posting FACTS.

I will continue to monitor the area on and off over the next 10 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!