Compare Hazel and Matthew

Some points here.

1. We have had cold fronts that are strong for a long time already in the Carolinas. Leaves turning colors early. We have also had a pattern of "coastal lows" one so strong that every good meteorologist I know is in shock the NHC did not put up an Invest let alone name the storm that had tropical storm winds and in many other years would have been named as a hybrid or subtropical or even a tropical storm. And yet they spent time putting out advisories for an invisible TD then a TS that most meteorologists for the government I know in very high places "off the record" were aghast they were putting out advisories on an invisible storm that had no convection wrapped around a very broad center.  Personally, I believe they should have waited and watched we knew it was there. Not my pony, not my show and know many who were upset to have to cover a no burger burger so to speak because whether they agreed with it's upgrade or not it is a named storm.

As we have cold fronts and coastal lows already in place this year IF something formed down to the South in the Carib at a time that is climatologically favored we have to watch carefully that it does not try and follow a Matthew or Hazel sort of scenario. 

2. Wave train off Africa is less than stellar and yet we watch and remember one could slide under the radar going rogue so to speak and become a player in the Caribbean. Happens often in October. I do think Erin was our one in the same way in 1960 Donna was the only one that became a hurricane and made landfall.

3. There's an Indian Summer coming up that would change the current set up for a short while that has been protecting the South and SE from a landfalling hurricane as fronts will ...should go quiet IF this "Indian Summer" period coming up with highs flirting with the 90s actually verifies and it could open a door to landfall further to the "left" in the Gulf should that really happen.  Lots of IFS and shoulds = who knows. But that's the forecast.

4. Fronts return wickedly early and winter seems way closer than it usually does in September. A game changer late season hurricane almost always shows up as Wilma did and on the backside cool air filtered down into South Florida making it much more comfortable to clean up after the hurricane than we had in August after Andrew when the heat was beastly with no air movement what so ever. We had Sandy and then it was game over for the Hurricane Season and Winter arrived to stay.

5. Time will tell. The season is NOT over, but it's not the season that was forecast or expected. The shear in the Carib has been strong the way it is in El Nino years and yet we were in Neutral going into La Nina and yet still La Nina has been a no show boost to the storms forming and the MJO is once again a No Show. No show busy hurricane season. No show MJO. There's a pattern or were the models that forecast the busy hurricane season and the arrival several times of the MJO that would help development trash models ... lots of questions for research in the post season.

It's been an odd year. The models have been less than stellar bordering on sucky. 

AI is wonderful but you have to do the work, make the forecast and than check AI to see if your forecast verifies in some way vs starting with the modeling then looking for the storm. I know too many that do that and spend so much time chasing models they barely look at the current satellite imagery which allows you to help recognize a pattern.  AI is in it's infant stages, learning more every day and getting better but it's far from perfect or even mostly perfect. And which AI model is best? Google AI has been pretty good, each has had it's day. It should be something fun to watch vs expecting it to be perfect at this stage in development.

Can we get back to real forecasting based on current synoptics, accepting the conditions in the Atlantic this odd year that make development difficult and pattern recognition. Then looking at the models that are working best this year (old reliable ones) and checking out AI and keeping it in mind, but not using it to upgrade crap waves that take up a quarter of the Atlantic and ignoring a storm making landfall with all the signs on radar and satellite imagery of a real landfalling threat. 

Have a great weekend. Much respect for the NHC that has been incredible most of the year and held off on naming and upgrading fluff and stuff to named status. They have though it seems for the last two years totally ignored strong coastal lows on the Carolina Beaches that had all the signs of a fast developing tropical storm with winds in the high end range of tropical storm strength; last year one that had close to 20 inches of rain flooding out many small towns and closed circulation and yet put up no warnings. I don't say this as I'm a Carolina Girl (maybe I am...) as I am a Florida girl living up here and still watch the Fins lose :( but watch and follow every wave that looks like it might rip apart my beautiful magical city of Miami that I love and where most of my family lives.   Just calling it as it is. 

Lastly in the far Pacific we may have an epic, big hurricane and chasers are watching it carefully. In the Caribbean or closer in near the Bahamas we may have development. I think it was a mistake to name the G storm when they did.. we all make mistakes. Perhaps down the road that will be reviewed. Andrew was originally a "Cat 4" landfall until it was reviewed and new evidence showed it was indeed a Cat 5 as we all knew ...those of us that witnessed the total destruction down South near Homestead where it looked as if an Atom Bomb was dropped. I made this blog so I could write my thoughts and say what I wanted and sometimes I forget that... today I said what I wanted.  Moving on we need to watch areas where storms could form that could be terribly impactful close in as well as beautiful fish storms out at sea looking beautiful and not destroying some coastal city somewhere ... 

I'll add Florida West Coast really deserves a rest this year. Will they get it? We will know when the Hurricane Season is over and in the rear view mirror!

Stay tuned......

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X