Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
I may be out of the office tomorrow for an event at my church.  IF I can swing it, I will try to issue a severe weather forecast early enough in the a.m.  I will try to issue a DAY 2 severe wx forecast later on today.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   12*
TOTAL HURRICANES:         4
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3
* (11 TROPICAL…1 SUBTROPICAL)

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/
INVEST 98L
I continue to monitor INVEST 98L which has been affecting the Windward Islands.  The NHC has designated a HIGH (80%) probability for development during the next 7 days.  The ECMWF EPS indicates a 80 – 90% probability in 72 hours.
NHC 7 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED)

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 72 HOURS

INVEST 98L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


As of the 12Z ATCF BTK product, the following information was available on INVEST 98L.
8:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 20
Location: 14.0N;66.5W
Moving: W 20 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb / 29.77 in.
Max sustained: 40 mph
The wave is currently producing concentrated deep convection just east of the wave axis (or center if you will).  This is still due to a slight tilt vertically toward the east due to continued light to moderate wind shear from the west, as seen in the recent CIMSS wind shear map.
CIMSS INVEST 98L WIND SHEAR

Analysis of the upper level winds tend to suggest an upper level outflow pattern may be trying to develop.
CIMSS 98L UPPER LEVEL WINDS

Based on analysis of global models and current SHIPS diagnostics, the models are indicating favorable surface moisture based on analysis of the precipitable water maps, and favorable mid level relative humidity values.  In approximately 48 – 72 hours, precipitable water and 700 – 500 mb RH values are forecast to increase to very favorable levels.  Analysis of wind shear maps and information from SHIPS indicate a reduction of wind shear at that time, with the ECMWF showing slow development of a radial shear pattern and fairly well established upper level outflow at the 200 mb level, which should create a favorable divergent pattern aloft.  Also by this time, the system should be moving over higher OCH (Ocean Heat Content). 
CIMSS OHC MAP

IF these conditions come to fruition and the system develops a solid core closed low, I would expect to begin to see a more steady rate of organization and intensification.  In fact, the recent SHIPS diagnostics indicate a 24.0% probability of rapid intensification (4.5 times climatological mean), with an increase wind winds of 65 kts / 72 hours.  At the moment, I believe this is overdone, however if all conditions improve as forecast, we should see a decent rate of steady intensification or possibly a brief period of R.I. (conditions however would have to be almost perfect).  Based on the fact the sustained winds are now at 35 kts (40 mph), I do not know if the NHC will classify this as MELISSA or not, being that the wave is still slightly disorganized at this time.  IF shear relaxes, we could see MELISSA within the next 36 hours if the intensity holds, or a Tropical Depression if it doesn’t.

Forecast path has come somewhat into better agreement, but should still be monitored until the system develops a solid core.  Right now, based on my analysis of forecast steering layers maps, I concur with the current model guidance consensus aids TVCA, TVCN and TVCX, and that a sharp turn north could occur.  However, this will all depend on where EXACTLY a solid core develops, and EXACT strength of the system in the next 72 – 96 hours.  A stronger system would have the tendency to be further east and more apt. to make that sharp turn, while a weaker system would be more apt. to travel further to the west, before any turn ensues.  A deep trough is forecast to create a good weakness in the ridge in the coming days, and strength and exact timing will be critical to future track.  Based on this, I recommend residents of the ABC Islands, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and portions of Cuba monitor this system closely over the next 72 – 96 hours.
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z HURRICANE FORECAST MODELS TRACK GUIDANCE

ECMWF, ECMWF A.I., GFS AND CMC MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST ANIMATION 72 – 168 HOURS




I will continue to monitor this situation closely during the next 96 – 120 hours. 
From the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook: Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are subsiding for the Windward and Leeward Islands this morning, but could begin over portions of the ABC Islands during the next couple of days. For more information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

Elsewhere, ensemble models still insisting on some type of brief increase in tropical activity in about 7 days.  The ECMWF ACE index forecast is indicating a 2.6 increase above normal in total ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) accumulation beginning next week.  Normal is 1.0 which equates to 100% of the climatological mean   
ACE FORECAST PROBABILITY

For this to happen, an increase in tropical activity has to occur.  One of the problems  with creating an accurate forecast with this has been, models have performed poorly in forecasting the MJO.  Generally, the models you see me use are very accurate at predicting the MJO.  Here is what has happened.  Back in SEP., indications were for a slower rotation and with forecast members indicating stronger signal.  Now, we are in a faster rotation of the MJO, and somewhat weaker signal is far as favorable conditions.  In research, I have found an explanation for you on the differences.
ECMWF MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM CURRENT FORECAST

ECMWF MJO SEP FORECAST

ACCESS – S2  SEP FORECAST AND CURRENT FORECAST

Slow-moving MJO

• Reduces wind shear: A slow-moving MJO can lead to lower wind shear in areas like the Caribbean, which is crucial for tropical cyclone development.
• Promotes development: Reduced wind shear allows thunderstorms to organize and grow, increasing the likelihood of tropical storm formation and intensification.
• Favorable phase: When a slow-moving MJO is in its enhanced phase, with rising air motion, it creates an environment where new storms are more likely to form and existing ones can strengthen

Fast-moving MJO

• Limited impact: A fast-moving MJO doesn’t stay in one location long enough to create the stable, low-shear environment that promotes development over a specific basin like the Atlantic.
• Associated with shear: In contrast, fast-moving MJOs are often associated with stronger wind shear and less favorable conditions for development.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS