Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
PLEASE keep the residents of Texas in your prayers regarding the terrible flash flooding tragedy.  Please pray for ALL of the souls lost, especially the young children, and pray for comfort, guidance and recovery for the survivors.

I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you read in the entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.  This forecast is very long, as we have 3 areas of interest to speak of. 

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   4
TOTAL HURRICANES:         0
MAJOR HURRICANES:        0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

Atlantic satellite loop imagery indicates Tropical Storm DEXTER, the remnant of the large tropical wave from last week near 25N;65W, another I am monitoring for development per the NHC outlook, currently near 10.0N;30.0W, and one exiting the African continent.  Water vapor loop imagery still shows a large area of dry air, however coverage over the MDR has decreased somewhat, with some moistening west of 40W to over Africa.
ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


Africa satellite imagery indicates several waves over the continent:
MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE 

The NHC is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm DEXTER.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory the following information was available on DEXTER:
11:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 04
Location: 38.0°N; 63.4°W
Moving: NE at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb / 29.67 in.
Max sustained: 40 mph

NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINKS AND GRAPHICS
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/051451.shtml
AVISO PUBLICO
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT4+shtml/051454.shtml?

RIP CURRENTS (LINKED)

CIMSS ADT WIND RADIUS

DEXTER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


You will note in satellite loop imagery, convection has become more spread out concentrated, and the system has become more disorganized as you can clearly see the LLC separated from the convection, just to the west.  This is due to 30 – 40 kts of wind shear, based on current CIMSS wind shear analysis. DEXTER  is taking in some slightly drier air in the southern quadrant, based on recent TPW analysis.
CIMSS CURRENT WIND SHEAR

The NHC TAFB surface analysis from 06Z still indicates the storm detached from the front, slightly, however you will note in Atlantic satellite loop imagery near the beginning of this synopsis, the system still appears frontal.

Regardless, as of the advisory DEXTER was moving to the NE.  Based on analysis of current and forecast steering layer maps, I expect this motion to continue through today, with a slight turn more toward the ENE by tomorrow. Based on this, I prefer the TVCA forecast track in the 12Z track guidance and agree with the NHC forecast map, and DEXTER should not pose a threat to the CONUS:
RAL 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

NHC FORECAST TRACK MAP

Based on my analysis of forecast conditions, shear and dry air are forecast to continue to increase during the next 48 hours, with the SHIPS diagnostic report indicating wind shear on the order of 59 kts.  Dexter will also be in mid level RH of only the low to mid 40% range.

Based on this, Dexter should continue to weaken.  Based on analysis after 48 hours, Dexter could re-intensify slightly from favorable interaction with a trough, and mainly baroclinic properties.  To avoid an in depth discussion, storms in the tropics derive their energy and strengthening from focused or BAROTROPIC conditions, equal conditions from the surrounding environment (heat focused in a column, warm surroundings, little to no shear, no varying temperature or pressure gradients, etc.).  In the case of Dexter, intensification will be the result of a BAROCLINIC environment.  Here is one definition:
https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/49/

Based on this analysis, I agree with the NHC intensity forecast:
NHC TROPICAL STORM DEXTER INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 05/1500Z 38.0N 63.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 38.8N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 39.6N 59.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 40.4N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 41.5N 52.2W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 08/0000Z 42.9N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/1200Z 44.4N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1200Z 46.0N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z…DISSIPATED
Seeing how DEXTER does note pose a threat to the U.S., I will still monitor the system, but this will be my final update on DEXTER.

Elsewhere,the NHC has increased probability for development off the SEUS coast during the next 7 days to MEDIUM (40%):
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

A weak surface trough is located off the SEUS.  Based on the forecast pressure pattern setup, and heat energy from the former wave of about 7 days ago, an area of low pressure is expected to develop within the next 72 hours.  The NHC currently indicates a 40% probability, while the ECMWF EPS probability forecast has increased to 70%
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST 24 – 72 HOURS

Based on my analysis of the global models, initial conditions are forecast to be favorable for slow development, based on analysis of  a favorable radial wind shear pattern, high TPW, and favorable mid level RH.  Based on this same analysis, the favorable wind shear pattern is forecast to remain with this area over the period, however mid level moisture will decrease to marginal to only slightly favorable, as the most favorable area will be south of the center of the supposed low.  Based on this, I believe probabilities could increase somewhat more, and if forecast conditions come to fruition, slow development could occur and continue.  Based on analysis of forecast steering layers maps, it now appears the initial motion will be W – WNW, then change to a more northward motion to NNE motion.  It now appears with model animations, this may remain offshore, however this can be more accurately determined if and when we get an organized or closed surface low for guidance models to latch onto.  CARCAH (Chief Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination All Hurricanes, may send a hurricane hunter aircraft out tomorrow: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

Regardless of development, forecast 7 day rainfall totals suggest the possibility of some localized flooding, now further north and closer to the coast.  I will continue to monitor this area closely for the next 48 – 72 hours for any significant changes in the forecast pattern.  
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 96 HOURS

WPC QPF  7 DAY (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) LINKED AND NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS 7 DAY FORECAST



Lastly, I am monitoring the CATL for possible development of an African wave locate near 10.0N;30.0W.  The NHC has designated a MEDIUM (50%) probability for cyclone formation during the next 7 days:
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

CATL SATELLITE LOOP

The ECMWF EPS cyclone formation probability forecast currently indicates a 50% probability for development:
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 48 -96 HOURS

Analysis this morning indicates the area where the wave is located is currently under 20 kts of easterly wind shear.  Since the shear is moving with the wave, there should only be a moderate negating effect.  Currently, models indicate favorable mid level RH, TPW values and a radial wind shear pattern to be developed over the system by 72 hours in the forecast period from 00Z.  Analysis of the global models indicate these conditions to remain with the wave / low out to 120 hours in the forecast period.  Based on this, I expect some slow development over the next 48 hours, and a tropical depression has a very good probability to develop by the weekend.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 42 HOURS

I will continue to monitor this area closely during the next 3 – 4 days.

Elsewhere, I am not expecting tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you too the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS