Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you them in their entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.  This one is rather lengthy with a lot of graphics.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   9
TOTAL HURRICANES:         3
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

Tropical Storm IMELDA continues to slowly show signs of continued organization based on recent satellite loop imagery
Tropical Storm IMELDA SATELLITE LOOP


As of the 5:00 P.M. advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on Tropical Storm IMELDA
5:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 28
Location: 24.2N;77.3W
Moving: N 9 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb / 29.47 in.
Max sustained: 40 mph

NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/282053.shtml?
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/282048.shtml?
NWS LOCAL PRODUCTS LINK.  CLICK ON BOLD BLUE HEADINGS
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls_at4+shtml/282130.shtml?

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings have been issued for the following locations:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

NHC  GRAPHICS

FLASH FLOOD RISK OUTLOOK

RIP CURRENTS


Tropical Storm IMELDA was currently moving to the N.  Based on my analysis of updated forecast steering, Imelda should now follow the forecast track guidance, as ALL dynamic, statistical – dynamic, consensus, and hurricane forecast models are now in very tight agreement, with latest track guidance showing a very tight cluster.
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA 18Z TRACK GUIDANCE

18Z ATCF GUIDANCE

HURRICANE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE

This now appears to be a more solid scenario, as HUMBERTO comes pretty close, and close enough to have an effect on the steering layer. Global model animations now indicate this forecast motion.  The ECMWF does stall or slow it briefly by day 5 into the period as HUMBERTO moves away, but then returns the motion to the NNE, continuing out to sea.  Based on this analysis, IMELDA should continue to a pretty much northward motion for the next 48 hours, prior to making the hard turn to the east.  Based on this, I agree with the NHC forecast track.
NHC FORECAST TRACK MAP






Tropical Storm IMELDA has come under some slight wind shear of around 15 – 20 kts, as the radial shear pattern is just a little off center from the center of the storm, hence the slow organization.  You can note however in satellite loop imagery, the center continues to slowly move under the deep convection
CIMSS RECENT WIND SHEAR

In addition, upper level outflow has become better established and although elongated, there are 2 very distinct outflow channels noted to the north and south of the center.
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS

Analysis of global models indicates wind shear to remain below 20 kts for the for at least the next 48 to possibly 72 hours, as well as the updated SHIPS guidance. The ECMWF still indicates a radial shear pattern to remain during this period, along with favorable 700 – 500 mb relative humidity vales, and precipitable water values.  It is noted that both of these values are forecast to increase during the next 24 – 36 hours, with conditions overall to remain favorable up to 72 hours.  Provided these conditions are met, and should the upper level outflow pattern maintain itself, then I am expecting continued strengthening to occur during the next 24 hours as the outflow will negate some of the shear, with a more steady rate of intensification between the 24 – 48 hour period in the forecast.  One item which will be aiding the system in this intensification will be the storm will be located within the right rear entrance region of a jetstreak located north and NE of the system.  This will aid in very good divergence aloft.  Once the storm leaves the warmer SST’s and high OHC, I expect weakening to begin.
ECMWF 200 MB FORECAST

Based on this, I currently agree with the NHC intensity forecast at the moment, however some of the intensity guidance models indicate IMELDA to intensify to a CAT 2 hurricane, with a slight probability of becoming a minimal major hurricane before it’s all said and done.  IF the forecast conditions come to fruition as forecast, I cannot rule this out at the moment, however strong CAT 1 seems more in order right now, and I will have to see what my next analysis late tomorrow indicates.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

From the National Hurricane Center:

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS