Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!
I will be out of the office Oct. 06 and Oct. 7 for family events. 

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   9
TOTAL HURRICANES:         4
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE

The area for the Bahamas / FL. which the NHC  had designated a LOW (10%) probability for cyclone development now has a 0% probability, as well as a small area of low pressure that popped up in the Gulf.
NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED)


Elsewhere, the NHC has increased the probability for cyclone development to MEDIUM (50%) regarding the tropical wave in the EATL during the next 7 days.  The ECMWF EPS cyclone development probability indicates a 60% probability during the next 72 -120 hours
NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED)

ECMWF EPS PROBABILITY 

Analysis this morning indicates a radial shear pattern over the system. This is a favorable feature.  Based on analysis of upper level winds, somewhat of an upper outflow pattern appears to be taking shape.  This is providing a weak diffluent pattern at the moment, over the system.  TPW (Total Precipitable Water) values have shown a slow increase and appear to be consolidating around the “center”.  Minimum TPW required for tropical development is considered to be around 54 mm – 63 mm.
CIMSS CURRENT WIND SHEAR MAP

CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAP

TPW ANIMATION

Based on my analysis, conditions are forecast to become somewhat more favorable by 96 hours in the forecast period with favorable TPW and marginally favorable mid level relative humidity.  Upper level winds are forecast to remain fairly favorable based on a radial shear pattern in the forecast, and a divergent upper pattern.  Based on these factors at the moment, this wave could become a Tropical Depression within the 96 hour period.  The following graphics indicate forecast conditions by the time mentioned.  Black circles represent location of the wave center.
TPW

MID LEVEL RH

WIND SHEAR

200 MB WIND PATTERN

Satellite loop imagery indicates the system is producing disorganized convection, however a fairly defined circulation is noted.  Satellite imagery indicated that the “center” is approximately near 7.0N;22.0W.  You will note in the NHC GTWO map that the “X” has been repositioned to near this location.  You’ll notice what even appears to be “banding” features trying to develop.  ASCAT did catch the wind field on the early morning pass.
EASTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


ASCAT

An accurate forecast track is not possible at the moment, however based on analysis of updated forecast steering layers maps, and positioning of the NHC hatched area, it appears this “could” now become another OTS (Out To Sea) scenario, however I’m going to monitor this closely since the system is currently located south of 10N.  Actual track will depend on the future intensity.  Future motion will become more accurate once guidance models begin to run on this system, especially with consensus models.

There has been a slight change to the MJO forecast, however CHI200 anomalies still indicate strong upward motion to enter the picture by around the 10th.  The MJO phase space diagram forecasts indicate a weaker signal in the mean, while most of the ensemble members indicate a stronger signal.  Based on analysis of a few other forecast tools, it now appears that mid month may be the time we see a better probability for an increase in tropical activity.  Global models are hinting at possible activity, as well as the EPS probability forecast, in the W. Caribbean by mid month, however I am looking for a little more consistency.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY

Ensemble members are still hinting at a pickup in activity as well.  These models represent where each member “thinks” an area of low pressure “may” develop.  ECMWF EPS has 51 members, the GFS (GEFS) has 21 members, and the CMC has 20.
ECMWF, GFS AND CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBER WISE 5 DAY MSLP FORECAST



10 DAY ENSEMBLE MEMBER WISE FORECAST



I will be monitoring the tropics closely during the remainder of the month. 

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS