Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! 
DONATIONS ACCEPTED AND APPRECIATED

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you them in their entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   6
TOTAL HURRICANES:         1
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

The following is an article from Dr. Phil Klotzbach from CSU, explaining the quiet conditions over the Atlantic thus far and what he expects for the remainder of the season: https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2025_0909_seasondiscussion.pdf
ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE

Not much change in the Atlantic.  A good amount of dry air still persists over much of the Atlantic basin with the SAL still persistent but limited to north of 20N, noted in pink.  You’ll note in the African satellite image, weak tropical wave activity (yellow circles) with the red circle indicating the wave I am monitoring, and an increase in moisture in the water vapor loop imagery, over W. Africa. 

Regarding the drier air, Dr. Klotzbach explains why it is occurring…The TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough), and a strong Azores – Bermuda high.  I also did a short analysis on this, and the 200 mb forecast map indicates that near months end, the TUTT will lift, and winds at the 200 mb level will become zonal over the subtropics.  The A/B high has been running at around 1028 – 1030 mb, aiding in dust transport.  The average pressure for this is 1024 mb.  Near months end, the forecast calls for the A/B high to weaken to around 1020 mb.  Based on the forecast of these 2 features, we SHOULD see a reduction in dry air.
GOES 19 RGB DUST SATELLITE  


I continue to monitor the tropical wave that has exited the African coast.  The NHC has designated a MEDIUM (50%) probability for cyclone development during the next 7 days.  The recent ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probability forecast indicates a 70% probability from 48 – 96 hours.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST 48 – 96 HOURS


Based on analysis this morning, the wave is still under 5 – 10 kts of easterly shear.  Based on my analysis of the ECMWF global model, conditions are only marginally favorable, based on limited precipitable water, limited mid level RH, and the easterly shear, albeit the shear is not that negating.  Analysis indicates that forecast conditions should improve, becoming favorable in about 96 hours, with an increase in precipitable water, mid level RH, and development of a radial shear pattern over the system.  Given the factors, the wave will be very slow to develop over the next 72 hours.  IF forecast conditions are accurate, we may see a tropical depression develop between 96 – 120 hours in the period.  Based on analysis of the forecast pressure pattern, this COULD be another out to sea scenario, however I am not going to speculate or get into this, until the area is designated an INVEST and guidance models begin running, as the current ECMWF animation currently brings the area further west.  Based on the NHC outlook map, and analysis of visible satellite loop imagery, the center of the wave is located approximately near 11.0N;25.0W.
CURRENT EATL SATELLITE LOOP


ECMWF MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST 96 HOURS

ECMWF PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST

ECMWF 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST

ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Elsewhere, the ECMWF AI model has been consistent in developing an area of low pressure off the SEUS coast, similar to the feature that hit the NJ coast Sept 2011,  based on analysis of forecast surface wind speed.  The ECMWF EPS, CMC, GFS, and ICON models are now pretty much in agreement on their current runs, and indicate a 1012 mb low in the forecast.  Based on my analysis of forecast conditions, this may not be tropical in nature, and more of a “feedback” entity and baroclinic in nature, based on the forecast of a fairly dry environment and wind shear over the area.  Analysis of current cyclone phase evolution thermal diagrams indicate any development would be cold core in nature.  I will be monitoring the area during the next 48 hours to see if in fact this comes to fruition and if so, what effect it may have on the U.S. east coast.
ECMWF AI SURFACE WIND FORECAST 72 HOURS

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST 42 HOURS

GFS MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST 48 HOURS

CMC MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST 48 HOURS

ICON SURFACE WIND FORECAST 72 HOURS

Elsewhere, I do not expect any development during the next 5 – 7 days.

The following is the current phase and MJO forecast per the phase space diagrams.  We are currently in the “null” phase of the MJO, however the ensemble diagrams are still indicating the MJO to rotate around to a strong phase 8 in about 7 – 8 days, then continuing into phase 1.  Should this occur, we may see an increase in tropical activity.  From now through Oct. is when we need to watch for development from the CAG (Central American Gyre).  I have article links posted on this feature.
INITIAL AND MJO FORECAST ACCESS – S2 MODEL


ECMWF MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

The following is from the GFS which indicates upward motion of the MJO in blue and purple:
GFS 200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL FORECAST FOR SEP. 20

The following maps indicate tropical cyclone density (development) in relation to the MJO phases, with model forecasts located on the right, and actual observations located on the left:
DEVELOPMENT CORRELATION (DEPICTED BY ORANGE AND RED)

MJO ARTICLES
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/23/2/2009jcli2978.1.xml
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL106872
CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE INFORMATION (CLICK LINKS BELOW)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_American_gyre
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/145/5/mwr-d-16-0411.1.xml

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS