Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
PLEASE keep the residents of Texas in your prayers regarding the terrible flash flooding tragedy and those lost.  

I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you read in the entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.  

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   4
TOTAL HURRICANES:         0
MAJOR HURRICANES:        0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

Satellite imagery indicates not much change in Atlantic, however areas of interest are still in place.  Water vapor imagery indicates still a good amount of dry air over the Atlantic, however there is very good moisture with the wave that just entered the Atlantic, and with the wave behind it.
ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


Africa satellite loop imagery indicates not too much change in tropical wave activity over the continent.
MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE 

Beginning closer to home, the ECMWF EPS probability forecast is STILL forecasting approximately a 45 – 50% probability of formation of a tropical depression in the Gulf  between 24 – 72 hours in the current forecast period.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS

A large area of disturbed weather is still noted over the Bahamas, Florida peninsula, and a portion of the extreme eastern Gulf.  Based on analysis of satellite loop imagery channels, especially visible and water vapor, a large, broad circulation is noted over Florida, and extending part way into the Gulf.
GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Again, there is no guarantee of definite development, however given the probability has increased since yesterday morning, and based on analysis of the global models forecast conditions, conditions are forecast to become somewhat favorable with the premise of ample precipitable water, somewhat favorable mid level relative humidity, with the most favorable condition being the development of a radial shear pattern (indicating little to no wind shear) over the area.  Global models still indicate lowering pressures, which could allow a surface low to develop over that area in the Gulf.



Just to be on the safe and heads up side, I will be monitoring the area during the next 48 hours for any significant changes.

The following is the recent NHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (GTWO), which currently indicates 2 areas of interest:
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

INVEST 96L has not recovered from yesterday, due to surrounding dry air. The NHC now has a LOW (20%) probability, while the ECMWF EPS probability is at 45 – 50% during the next 72 hours
NHC 7 DAY GTWO 96L

As of the 12Z (8:00 a.m. EDT) ATCF BTK report, the following information was available on INVEST 96L:
8:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 07
Location: 20.0°N; 46.6°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1014 mb / 29.94 in.
Max sustained: 30 mph
INVEST 96L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Based on current forecast steering maps analysis, I expect the current general motion to continue during the next 72 – 96 hours  I prefer the TVCA consensus model forecast track in the 12Z guidance map:
12Z RAL TRACK GUIDANCE

Based on current conditions, 96L was under no wind shear, with the presence of a radial shear pattern noticed in analysis. However the dry air surrounding 96L based on water vapor imagery and the current TPW map is not allowing for development of deep convection, and is producing a pretty much stable environment, causing subsidence.  While the forecast from the global models indicate the radial shear pattern to remain with 96L during the next 4 – 5 days, with shear values below 10 kts, models indicate an increase in dry air during the next 24 hours, with a steady decrease in mid level RH over the next 72 – 96 hours.  Intensity guidance keeps this below T.S. intensity out to about 72 hours, and then shows an increase afterward, while the hurricane models indicate the opposite, as far as intensification.  Based on my analysis, unless 96L can overcome and mix out the drier air, I don’t think we’re going to see much out of 96L.
12Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE

I will continue to monitor INVEST 96L during the next 72 hours for any significant changes to the forecast.

The NHC has designated a MEDIUM (40%) probability for development of the tropical wave that has just exited the African continent.  As I was getting ready to publish the forecast, the area was designated as INVEST 97L
NHC 7 DAY GTWO

As of the 12Z (8:00 a.m. EDT) ATCF BTK report, the following information was available on INVEST 97L:
8:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 09
Location: 10.1°N; 17.0°W
Moving: WNW at 5 – 8 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb / 29.71 in.
Max sustained: 30 mph
ALL of the models have been indicating lowering MSLP anomalies over the EATL and CATL for the past few days, and are in better agreement this morning for a tropical depression to develop during the next few days.  The current ECMWF EPS probability forecast indicates an 80% probability for development of a tropical depression during the next 3 – 5 days.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST 72 – 120 HOURS

The ECMWF, GFS, and CMC global models are in agreement of forecast conditions becoming favorable, to almost very favorable within the next 72 hours, based on analysis of forecast wind shear, surface to mid level relative humidity maps, and surface moisture based on analysis of precipitable water maps.

The wind shear forecast still indicates a healthy radial shear pattern by then, with that pattern remaining over the system from 72 hours out to 192 hours in the forecast period, along with the mid level relative humidity, and precipitable water values.  Should the models be correct in the forecast conditions, I expect the NHC to increase the probability within the next 48 hours, and in my professional opinion, we could very well see our next tropical depression.  Based on these same forecast conditions, I am not ruling out the possibility of our first hurricane of the season.  To save room on the page, I will not be posting the maps mentioned, as you have seen them from previous forecasts.

The following are MSLP anomaly animations from the global models are pretty much in agreement, save for varying intensity.  DO NOT TAKE THESE ANIMATIONS AS GOSPEL.  At the moment, the models can only provide a “basic” idea of what we may be looking at down the road.  Same thing with all the spaghetti models you’ve seen posted, all just a generalized idea, as the models do not have any well defined, organized low level circulation to focus on.  Models should become more accurate once we get and organized low over the water.
ECMWF, GFS AND CMC MSLP ANIMATIONS OUT TO DAY 5



I will continue to monitor the situation for any significant changes during the next 72 hours.

Elsewhere, I am not expecting tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you too the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS