I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics. This synopsis is titled as SPECIAL, as the office is closed on the weekends.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)


AFRICA IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)


The NHC GTWO has designated a LOW (20%) probability for development of a non – tropical low in the NE Atlantic during the next 7 days, and an area of low pressure in the central subtropical Atlantic. Area #1 is under westerly shear, and water vapor images indicate dry air intrusion. The thermal diagram indicates this is currently cold core, and very briefly indicates it may barely become limited warm core, before becoming cold core once again.Dry air is forecast to wrap into the core during the next 2 days. Area #2 is lacking any surface convergence and upper divergence, with the forecast calling for limited moisture as it is in a dry surrounding. Based on what I am seeing, I am not looking for development.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

AREA 1

AREA 1 THERMAL DIAGRAM

AREA 2

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates tropical wave locations as of 06Z this morning.
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

Based on my analysis today, the 00Z ECMWF Cyclone formation probability forecast indicates a 60% probability for development of the low currently near 60W, and a 70% probability in 96 – 144 hours for the tropical wave that should exit Africa by Tuesday. This wave is currently located near 5.0E. I’ve already mentioned my take on the area near 60W
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS

96 – 144 HOURS

Elsewhere, the 3 global models (ECMWF, GFS, and CMC ) have begun to disagree on development of the tropical wave forecast to exit Africa next week. The GFS and CMC have backed off, only indicating a weak area of low pressure on and off during next week, while the ECMWF is remaining consistent with initial favorable conditions and slow development of this wave. The ECMWF still insists on very ample surface to mid level moisture values based on analysis of precipitable water, and 700 mb relative humidity. The model indicates a radial shear pattern which s favorable as it indicates a lack of any zonal wind shear, with the 200 mb streamline forecast indicating a developing upper level anticyclone over the area, which should some upper level divergence. By days 8 – 10, the radial shear pattern becomes disrupted and an increase in shear is noted briefly, but upper divergence could limit the effect. After day 10, the shear pattern is forecast to become favorable once again. However, given the timeframe in the forecast, I will be re-analyzing forecast conditions during that time. Again, this does not mean development is definite, but forecast conditions do favor some possible, slow development next week.

I will continue to monitor this area closely during the next 7 days.

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 120 HOURS

ECMWF PWAT FORECAST 120 HOURS

ECMWF 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST 120 HOURS

ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST 120 HOURS

ECMWF 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST 120 HOURS

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES ANIMATION 168 HOURS

Elsewhere, I do not expect any tropical cyclone development during the next 5 – 7 days. Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.