Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
PLEASE keep the residents of Texas in your prayers regarding the terrible flash flooding tragedy and those lost.

I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you read in the entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown. 

I will be out of the office on Wednesday, Aug. 27 to celebrate my birthday, and intend to resume forecasting on Thursday the 28th

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   6
TOTAL HURRICANES:         1
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY

MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE

Fernand remains a Tropical Storm and continues to pose no threat to the U.S.  The system should continue to the forecast track, and should transition to post tropical within the next 36 – 48 hours.  Satellite loop imagery shows the low level center has become exposed.
FERNAND SATELLITE LOOP

INVEST 99L is pretty much toast, having pretty much falling apart.  Surface wind analysis still indicates although close, the system still has no closed surface circulation.  Conditions are forecast to continue to become unfavorable for any development.  While the forecast indicates conditions to become fairly favorable in the extreme W. Caribbean in a few days, without a closed circulation, good luck with any recovery.
INVEST 99L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

As of the CIMSS TPW 1700Z update, Tropical Waves were noted at the approximate locations.  Black lines represent the approximate wave axis.
CIMSS 17Z TPW ANALYSIS

The forecast pattern still indicates we should witness a good increase in tropical activity approximately around Sep. 06 or shortly thereafter, based on the MJO forecast.  I will be looking at the Gulf, Caribbean, and a portion of the Atlantic off the SEUS coast and Bahamas area.  What is forecast to occur is, surface temperatures over the northern 1/3 of the U.S. are forecast to become cooler by about 10 – 15 degrees during this next week.  As this occurs, SST’s will remain very warm south of the area over the Gulf, Caribbean Sea, and off the coastal region of the SEUS. 
ECMWF SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY FORECAST

CURRENT SST ANOMALIES MAP

As this happens, “nature” detects this “anomaly”, and experiences the warmer temperatures in comparison to the cool down to the north.  This allows for the surrounding air over the waters to “rise” and create what we term net maximum “lift” in the atmosphere.  As the warmer air rises, it cools and can form clouds.  At the same time, it allows for surface pressures to lower.  As this occurs, winds “converge” together at the surface, rise, and diverge at the upper atmosphere.  This setup makes it much easier for systems to develop due to creating a convective current or “feedback loop” and, if other conditions are favorable, pressures can continue to fall, possibly turning into a tropical entity.

The next item I am watching is the progression of the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation).  If you click the following diagram, the article explains how this affects tropical development:

The most active phases for TC activity in the Atlantic occur from phases 8 to 3, with phases 2 and 3 being the most favorable.  Based on the current MJO forecast from 2 of the most reliable ensemble models, we should be entering phases 1 and 2 around approximately Sep. 8 – 10 (phase 1) with the MJO moving very slowly within this phase for approximately 10 days, and then moving into phase 2 for the remainder of Sep.  The ensemble majority indicates this is the current MJO phase space diagram forecast:
ACCESS-S2

ECMWF ENSEMBLE BIAS CORRECTED

ECMWF ENSEMBLE, ECMWF-AI and ECMWF – AI ENSEMBLE indicate this in the CHI200 anomalies maps, with sinking air (motion) noted by the brown colors, and rising air (motion) noted by green / lighter colors.  Though upward motion is not as strong as in the recent JMA CHI200 map, which is usually very accurate, here is a little tidbit I wanted to share.  While development would be favored more within the darkest green areas, this doesn’t necessarily mean development will not occur in the very faint green to extremely light brown areas.  What occurs is, if you’ll look at the dark brown in the Pacific near the U.S., what happens is, this sinking air as it “spreads out” to the east, slows down the easterly trade winds over the Caribbean and Atlantic, allowing for convergence to occur, and for heat and energy to build up in these basins.  Hence a more favorable environment on our side of the world for tropical development and increase in overall tropical activity.  Given this with the MJO forecast and surface temperature forecast, we “should” see a good increase in tropical activity.  Not saying it will occur exactly, but this is what occurred in the 2024 hurricane season, when the vast majority of activity occurred right at the climatological peak of the season, through October.
2024 HURRICANE SEASON LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2024&basin=atl

ECMWF EPS, ECMWF – AI, AND ECMWF -AI ENSEMBLE CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST



JMA CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST INDICATING STRONG PHASE 2 MJO STATUS SEP. 06 – SEP 19

Elsewhere, I am not expecting any development for the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS