I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

I do not expect any development of a tropical system during the next 5 – 7 days.

I will be out of the office from Jul. 23 through the 31st to visit my son in PA.

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP

AFRICA SATELLITE LOOP


Satellite loop imagery indicates the Atlantic remains quiet, with water vapor imagery indicating quite a bit of dry air in the Atlantic basin with a slight increase in moisture near the Cape Verde islands, eastward into a small area of Africa.

The NHC indicates no tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC in the 06Z Surface Analysis indicated a tropical wave near 19W and 88W. The CIMSS TPW site was down so I am utilizing the ECMWF 06Z PWAT map
ECMWF 06Z TPW MAP (WAVE AXIS’ ARE IN BLACK)

Most of you have probably heard me speak of how quickly conditions can change in the tropics. This happens to be one of those times. The ECMWF Cyclone Formation Probability forecast model has reduced the probability for Tropical Cyclone development in the eastern Gulf. The model has 3 different categories for development: Tropical Cyclone (DEPRESSION), Topical Storm, and Hurricane. The probability for development off Africa has increased. The following probabilities are from the 00Z run. The 12Z run is not issued until around 4:00 p.m. in the afternoon. We’ll begin closer to home (Area 1)
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 72 – 192 HOURS
24 – 72 HOURS

96 – 144 HOURS

Based on my analysis today, what a difference 24 hours can make. Today, the ECMWF probability has lowered the probability for development in the eastern Gulf from 40% to 10%. This is most likely based on on a quick change in forecast conditions. Yesterday, the ECMWF indicated fairly favorable conditions for development. This morning, the radial shear pattern with reduction in shear which was shown yesterday has reversed to an increase in wind shear, with the flow now forecast to be zonal. Although surface to mid level moisture will still be favorable, the 200 mb streamline pattern has changed from the upper level anticyclone that was forecast, to a zonal pattern. This indicates we have pretty much lost divergence in the upper atmosphere. Without divergence aloft, it is pretty hard to get convergence at the surface (which aids in developing a closed surface low). This area is originally shown in the maps over the mid Atlantic region. This area travels into the Gulf due to a trough split from a stationary frontal system, and is now forecast to remain a trough of lower pressure, as seen in the WPC surface analysis map posted below. Based on this, I do not expect development to occur, unless conditions take another drastic change. I will continue to monitor this closely during the next 5 days for any significant changes to forecast conditions.
INITIAL FORECAST CONDITIONS ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES

WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS


AREA 2
An area of low pressure has been forecast to developed from a tropical wave that is forecast to exit the African coast in approximately 48 to 72 hours. In the PWAT animation below, you will notice the current wave initially which was analyzed near 19W this morning, then the exiting wave behind it by the rotation. The ECMWF EPS Cyclone formation probability forecast has increased the probability for development of a tropical depression to 80% – 90% over the next 72 hours. Based on my analysis of initial conditions this morning, conditions appear to be favorable for some slow development of this wave. The ECMWF indicates a somewhat favorable radial wind shear pattern and some reduced shear, and a somewhat divergent pattern in the upper atmosphere as seen in the 200 mb streamline forecast. Both surface and mid level moisture are forecast to be favorable.

The animation currently indicates this to move toward the west, and OOA the 20th – 21st, this feature should begin to encounter a more hostile environment with wind shear increasing and the beginning of dry air intrusion. IF forecast conditions come to fruition as analyzed in analysis this morning, this area could briefly see formation of a tropical depression. Again, conditions can and do change quickly between times of analysis. The bottom line is I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes during the next 72 hours.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES EATL

EATL PWAT ANIMATION

ECMWF EATL WIND SHEAR, 200MB STREAMLINE, AND 700MB RH (BLACK AND RED CIRCLE INDICATES LOCATION OF THE LOW)



Elsewhere, I do not expect any tropical cyclone development during the next 5 – 7 days.

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.