I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

I will be out of the office from Jul. 22 through the 31st to visit my son in PA.

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP

AFRICA SATELLITE LOOP

Satellite loop imagery indicates the Atlantic remains quiet, with the exception of a Tropical Wave located near the Cape Verde islands, with water vapor imagery indicating quite a bit of dry air in the Atlantic basin with a slight increase in moisture near the Cape Verde islands, eastward into a small area of Africa.

The NHC has issued a LOW (20%) probability for tropical cyclone development over the NE Gulf during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC in the 06Z Surface Analysis indicated a tropical wave near 25W. There appears to be a combination of 2 waves just south-southeast of the Cape Verde islands. The CIMSS TPW site was down so I am utilizing the ECMWF 06Z PWAT map
ECMWF 06Z TPW MAP (WAVE AXIS’ ARE IN BLACK)

Most of you have probably heard me speak of how quickly conditions can change in the tropics. This happens to be one of those times. The ECMWF Cyclone Formation Probability forecast model has increased the probability for Tropical Cyclone development in the NE Gulf. The model has 3 different categories for development: Tropical Cyclone (DEPRESSION), Topical Storm, and Hurricane. The probability for development off Africa has increased. The following probabilities are from the 00Z run. The 12Z run is not issued until around 4:00 p.m. in the afternoon. We’ll begin by looking closer to home (Area 1)
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 24 – 120 HOURS
24 – 72 HOURS

72 – 120 HOURS

Based on my analysis today, what a difference 24 hours can make. Today, the ECMWF probability has increased the probability for development in the NE Gulf from 10% to 40% – 45%. This is most likely based on a quick change in forecast conditions. Initial conditions yesterday morning indicated unfavorable initial conditions. This morning, they have switched to somewhat favorable to marginal, with the forecast now indicating a partial radial shear pattern, with reduced wind shear, with favorable surface and mid level moisture values. The negative factor toward development is very little to no upper divergence at the 200 mb level, based on the 200 mb streamline analysis. The MSLP anomalies map does indicate a closed 1012mb low pressure area, which moves toward the NE in the animation. As this occurs and the low moves inland, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for development, and the low will be cut off from the ocean source. Based on this, I do not feel at this time the low will become a Tropical Depression. However, the low pressure may very well bring some much needed rainfall to the central and north central portion of the Florida peninsula during the next 7 days. I will continue to monitor this closely during the next 5 days for any significant changes to forecast conditions.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES ANIMATION

WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS


ECMWF AND WPC 7 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FORECAST


AREA 2
A Tropical Wave located near 10.0N;20.5W appears to be trying to become a little better organized based on satellite loop analysis. This wave is very close to the one mentioned yesterday, which is the one now located at 25W. Current conditions are marginal for development, however in approximately 36 – 48 hours conditions are forecast to become more favorable, with development of a radial shear pattern, excellent surface to mid level moisture values, and some divergence aloft, although not too optimal. As this supposedly moves to the WNW then W, the low that may develop will have approximately 72 hours of favorable conditions, before merging with what appears to be a trough to its north, and wind shear increases to unfavorable levels. Based on this, this feature could possible become a Tropical Depression during the next 24 – 72 hours. The current ECMWF EPS Cyclone formation probability has increased the development probability to 90%+ for a Tropical Depression as seen in the graphics above, and 30% probability for a Tropical Storm. Again, nothing is promised, and for development to occur, forecast conditions will have to come to fruition as shown.

I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes to the forecast conditions during the next 72 hours.

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES EATL

EATL PWAT AND 700MB RH FORECAST


ECMWF EATL WIND SHEAR AND 200MB STREAMLINE FORECAST


TROPICAL WAVE SATELLITE LOOP

Elsewhere, I do not expect any tropical cyclone development during the next 5 – 7 days.

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.