Good day everyone!

If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system or severe weather). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 10
TOTAL HURRICANES:        1
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


The NHC has designated a MEDIUM (50%) probability of cyclone development for the area south of Bermuda during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates the location of Tropical Waves. None were detected
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

The following is the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probabilities forecast during the next 3 – 7 days.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS


72 – 120 HOURS

120- 168 HOURS

The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is forecast to remain in favorable phases for the next 10 – 15 days. However recent information I came across indicates a discrepancy in the MJO phase space diagram, based on the ECMWF EPS ext. forecast CHI200 anomalies showing more of a phase 7 and 8. The following is from Weatherbell Chief Meteorologist Joe Bastardi: the 200 hPa velocity potential pattern is more applicable. This does happen in El nino seasons.
ECMWF EPS MJO FORECAST

ECMWF EPS EXT. CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST

Analysis of the cyclone formation probability models indicates a slight increase in probability, with the model now indicating approximately a 50% probability for cyclone development south of Bermuda during the next 3 – 5 days.
WATL SATELLITE LOOP


Analysis of the global models this morning indicates development of low pressure over the area south of Bermuda during the next 3 – 5 days, as well as ensemble and AI modeling. All 3 global models are in agreement and consistency. The low is forecast to continue to develop along a stalled frontal boundary, which is noted in the NHC Surface Analysis map. Based on the analysis of the ECMWF forecast, shear is forecast to remain in place. Surface moisture is forecast to be limited, with mid level moisture somewhat favorable. Dry air is forecast to hold off now until Sunday / Monday in the period at both the 700 mb and 500 mb level, and when the onset occurs, should pretty much end any further development. NHC suggests this low could take on some sub-tropical characteristics prior to this, however the low would have to become detached from the front, and given the forecast for wind shear to remain in place, I would have to see if the current outflow channel persists, which would offset the shear for possible subtropical development. I will continue to monitor this area during the next 72 hours, however this low is forecast to move off toward the E to ENE in a few days. Currently, I am not expecting any impacts for the U.S.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 168 HOURS

Elsewhere, I do not expect any development during the next 5 days but will be monitoring the W. and central Caribbean as a weak CAG signal (Central American Gyre) is forecast to be present, but now eventually moves into the E. Pacific.

Elsewhere, I do not expect tropical development during the next 5 – 7 days.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.