Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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WELCOME TO THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you them in their entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   7
TOTAL HURRICANES:         2
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY

MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE
Gabrielle became much better organized over the past few days.  The NHC has marked 2 waves in the Atlantic for possible development, and I am monitoring another one that exited Africa yesterday, at a much lower latitude than the previous waves.  ALL tropical waves are marked in yellow.  Water vapor imagery indicates that dry air is still a factor in the Atlantic basin.  Again, as we get into late SEP. and into OCT., we’ll have to monitor the Central American Gyre or CAG for any areas of development.  I have links to articles on the CAG at the end of this synopsis.

IF forecast conditions for the MJO come to fruition, I still expect some kind of increase in activity, although the amount is unknown given slight discrepancies in the MJO forecast and CHI200 anomalies predictions.  The MJO is currently stalled in the “null” phase, but is very close to phase 8.  This may explain the current increase in wave activity.
MJO CURRENT PHASE SPACE

MJO PHASE SPACE FORECAST

Looks like I may have to change my forecast policy.  I usually do not analyze and forecast on the weekends, however given what just happened with Gabrielle’s intensity, while I’m monitoring a system, should the forecast conditions present themselves to where rapid intensification may occur, I will try to get out a special update.

Gabrielle had finally become better organized over the weekend, and after having gone through a period of on and off wind shear (which was not called for in analysis on Friday regarding forecast wind shear maps), Gabrielle had a brief period of rapid intensification and is now a major hurricane.  As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT  advisory, the following information was available on Gabrielle:
11:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 22
Location: 30.8N;62.3W
Moving: N 10 mph
Min pressure: 955 mb / 28.20 in.
Max sustained: 120 mph
HURRICANE GABRIELLE SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


GABRIELLE WIND RADII
Based on the NHC motion, GABRIELLE was moving toward the North.  Based on analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, I expect this motion to continue for the next 12 hours. By this evening, I expect Gabrielle to begin recurving into a weakness in the ridge caused by a strong trough. Model guidance is in much better agreement, and I agree with the 12Z model guidance TVCA, which is in the model cluster and inline with the NHC forecast track.  
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

NHC FORECAST MAP

RIP CURRENTS


CURRENT WIND SHEAR

Based on analysis of the ECMWF global model and SHIPS diagnostic report, Gabrielle should continue to have favorable precipitable water and mid level relative humidity values for at least the next 24 hours.  Although Gabrielle is experiencing some moderate shear at the moment, there is moderate to strong upper level outflow based on analysis of the current upper level winds, in addition to moving over warmer water.  The outflow should aid in negating some of the shear.  Based on this, Gabrielle could continue to intensify during the remainder of the day.
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND MAP
Based on the current analysis, should forecast conditions play out, I currently have to agree that Gabrielle may attain minimal CAT 4 hurricane intensity, before the weakening trend occurs in approximately 24 hours.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

Elsewhere, the NHC has designated a MEDIUM (40%) probability for cyclone development during the next 7 days, for the Tropical Wave located near 55W.  The ECMWF EPS probability forecast indicates a 35% probability during the next 24 – 72 hours.  Based on current analysis, initial conditions are marginal for slow development based on favorable moisture, but currently unfavorable wind shear. Conditions are forecast to remain only marginally favorable for slow development, based on model analysis.  Wind shear is the main factor for this wave, as precipitable water and mid level moisture appear to remain somewhat favorable during the next 72 – 96 hours.  Given this, I would expect the probability for further development to remain low, unless forecast conditions change.  I will continue to monitor this wave however as it moves toward the WNW, for any significant changes to forecast conditions.
CATL SATELLITE LOOP
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY
The NHC has also designated a HIGH (70%) probability for cyclone development during the next 7 days for a Tropical Wave near 41W.  The ECMWF EPS probability forecast now indicates a 75% probability.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

Based on my analysis, current conditions are marginal for slow development.  This is based on the combination of favorable moisture from surface to mid level, and somewhat unfavorable wind shear at the moment.  Although in the NHC current outlook it is stated conditions should become more favorable by tomorrow, analysis of the global models indicates this process may be a little slower to occur, with precipitable water, mid level RH and wind shear beginning to improve by 48 hours, with favorable conditions by 96 hours into the forecast period with models indicating development of a radial shear pattern.  This could allow for our next depression to develop.  I will continue to monitor this wave however as it moves toward the WNW, for any significant changes to forecast conditions.
TROPICAL WAVE 2

Elsewhere, the Tropical Wave I am monitoring in the EATL looked much better yesterday, and is currently disorganized.  Conditions based on analysis are supposed to remain marginal for around the next 48 hours, before drier air begins to affect the wave.  I will continue to watch this wave carefully for any significant changes to forecast conditions over the next few days.
EATL WAVE

Elsewhere, I do not expect any development during the next 5 – 7 days.
CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE INFORMATION (CLICK LINKS BELOW)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_American_gyre
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/145/5/mwr-d-16-0411.1.xml

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS