Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!
I will be out of the office Oct. 03, Oct. 06 and Oct. 7 for family events.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   9
TOTAL HURRICANES:         4
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE

There appears to be a slight increase in wave activity in the Atlantic, with a good looking one near 17N;47W.  Based on current steering, this should recurve.  I will continue to monitor this.  You’ll note in the African satellite image, there has been an increase of convective activity. This may possibly be due to the MJO having entered weak into phase 2.

The NHC indicates HUMBERTO has merged with a front, and is issuing advisories only on IMELDA
NHC LINK:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Based on analysis of the global models this afternoon, models are beginning to “hint” of lowering MSLP pressure anomalies around Florida and the Gulf within the 72 – 96 hour period, with probability guidance picking up on this.  The ECMWF indicates a 1012 mb low associated with the lowering pressures.  This does not mean any definite development, as forecast wind shear is high, but with high pressure directly to the north, I will be monitoring the area.  Models are also beginning to hint at some possible activity in about 10 days into the forecast period.  Though this is that far out in the forecast period, I am going to begin to monitor the SW Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf carefully due to possible favorability of the MJO.  The CMC 10 DAY indicating the low in the W. Gulf, develops the system near Florida.


   
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY

ECMWF, GFS, AND CMC 10 DAY…UKMET 7 DAY MSLP FORECAST



UKMET

I know I keep repeating this and it’s been mentioned for about the past 3 weeks or so.  This doesn’t mean I don’t know what I am talking about, but rather the MJO has appeared to have taken a vacation and it’s rotation around the globe and resulting phase space diagrams forecasts has slowed a good degree.  Based on the forecast however, the BOM ACCESS – S2 MODEL and the ECMWF ensembles still indicate a rotation into the most favorable phases for tropical development during the entire month of October, with a somewhat strong signal.  The only thing I can tell you with the following graphics is, I can’t control how fast the forecast “could” pan out, only that IF the signals materialize, do not brush off the remainder of the season.  Having done a tiny bit more research today while having my vehicle worked on, I glanced over a research paper that referenced Dr. Phil Klotzbach.  According to the paper, our ACE index has the highest levels while the MJO is located in phases 1 – 4, with phases 1, 2, and 3 being the most favorable phases.
MJO FORECAST ACCESS – S2 MODEL

ECMWF MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

The current ACCESS – S2 MJO is a little confusing, since its update is always 2 – 3 days behind.  However it does indicate a path to phase 2, while the ECMWF above indicates we are in a weak phase 2.  This is most likely one of the reasons IMELDA came together like she did.  You’ll note the ECMWF pretty much stays in the favorable phase forecast, as well as the ECMWF Ext. Ensembles, with a good conglomeration of the ensemble members (yellow lines) indicating favorable phases.
ECMWF EXT (BIAS CORRECTED) MJO FORECAST

The global models and their ensembles are indicating very favorable CHI200 anomalies to develop over our part of the world, starting around 10 Oct.  The green shading represents upward motion of the MJO at 200 mb, which tends to favor development in the Gulf, Caribbean Sea, and SW portion of the Atlantic. 
ECMWF, ECMWF AFIS, AND GFS CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST ANIMATION OCT. 10  (CMC WAS NOT AVAILABLE)



ENSEMBLES


ECMWF, ECMWF AIFS, AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER WISE 10 DAY MSLP FORECAST


The following maps indicate tropical cyclone density (development) in relation to the MJO phases, with model forecasts located on the right, and actual observations located on the left:
DEVELOPMENT CORRELATION (DEPICTED BY ORANGE AND RED)

MJO ARTICLES
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/23/2/2009jcli2978.1.xml
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL106872
CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE INFORMATION (CLICK LINKS BELOW)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_American_gyre
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/145/5/mwr-d-16-0411.1.xml
While I am not expecting development during the next 5 – 7 days, I will be monitoring the tropics closely during the remainder of the month, for possible development spawned by the CAG, shown above.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS