Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you them in their entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   6
TOTAL HURRICANES:         1
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

The following is an article from Dr. Phil Klotzbach from CSU, explaining the quiet conditions over the Atlantic thus far and what he expects for the remainder of the season: https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2025_0909_seasondiscussion.pdf
ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY

MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE

Well, we have a little more change in the overall Atlantic, with the introduction of INVEST 92L, and another wave getting ready to exit the African coast, and the baroclinic low off the SEUS.  Limited wave activity is still noted over Africa.  Again, as we get into late SEP. and into OCT., we’ll have to monitor the Central American Gyre or CAG for any areas of development.

A non tropical, baroclinic low has developed from a dissipating cold front, and is situated off the mid Atlantic coast.  Based on analysis, the low is currently cold core in nature, and is experiencing 50 – 60 kts of wind shear, hence the lack of convection near the center.  Based on the current ECMWF run, this low may attain a pressure of around 1005 mb. 

NWS statements and advisories have been issued.  Based on potential rainfall and wave heights forecasts, some minor coastal flooding could occur.  I will continue to monitor this closely, as the current cyclone phase analysis is now indicating that the system being located over the Gulfstream, a slight possibility exists there could be a brief transition to warm core, but it is unknown at the moment if this would be able to take on any sub-tropical characteristics.
SEUS SATELLITE LOOP


CYCLONE PHASE THERMAL DIAGRAM FORECAST

ECMWF WAVE HEIGHTS FORECAST

NWS GRAPHICS AND LINK



NWS MOREHEAD CITY LINK
https://www.weather.gov/mhx/

Elsewhere, I continue to monitor the tropical wave now over the CATL.  Convection has become a little more concentrated, and though still disorganized, the wave appears to be trying to slowly organize.  The NHC has increased the probability for cyclone development during the next 7 days to HIGH (80%).  The recent ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probability forecast indicates a 90% probability from 24 – 72 hours.  NOTE:  While further into my analysis late morning, the wave was designated as INVEST 92L.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST 72 HOURS

Based on analysis this morning, the shear pattern has changed from the last 3 days to a more favorable pattern, with a weak radial shear pattern now established.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP

Because the area has not been designated a cyclone, the NHC is not issuing updates as far as location and intensity.  However, analysis of the ATCF BTK report indicated at 12Z (8:00 a.m. EDT), the following information was available on INVEST 91L:
8:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 15
Location: 11.9N;38.3W
Moving: WNW 17 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb / 29.83 in.
Max sustained: 30 mph
Based on my analysis of the ECMWF global model and CIMSS products, conditions continue to become more favorable, based precipitable water, and mid level RH supposedly more favorable, based on current, initial SHIPS diagnostics.  Analysis indicates that forecast conditions should continue to improve through 72 hours in the forecast period, with an increase in precipitable water, mid level RH, and a sustained radial shear pattern over the system.  Initial intensity guidance is suggesting that INVEST 92L attains CAT 1 hurricane intensity within 72 hours, however based on my analysis of the rate of evolution for the favorable conditions, I feel in approximately 36 – 48 hours we may only see development of a Tropical Depression, unless forecast conditions improve quicker.  I will be monitoring the forecast conditions closely for any changes to this.
INVEST 92L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


INVEST 92L was moving toward the WNW (280 deg.) at around 17 mph.  Based on current steering, and analysis of forecast steering maps, I expect this motion to continue for about the next 48 hours, however initial guidance was scarce with only about 4 – 5 models having run, and mostly consisting of climatology and persistence models.  Based on a forecast break  / weakness in the middle of the subtropical ridge in a few days, a turn to the NW and eventually north SHOULD occur, however based on forecast steering maps, I am inclined to favor the ECMWF ensembles at the moment until consensus models begin running on this system.  Again, ANY track forecasts at the moment should be considered low confidence until the system develops a well defined, closed low level circulation.
Elsewhere, I do not expect any development during the next 5 – 7 days.
INVEST 92L INITIAL TRACK GUIDANCE

ECMWF EPS GUIDANCE

Once again, IF what I am witnessing in my forecast analyses (what I’m harping on will ONLY occur, if the forecast models are correct in the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation forecast), do not feel the season is over by any means.  For instance, one product is from the ECMWF EPS sub-seasonal forecast for ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy).  The following map indicates the climate “mean” (0range) for the map time frame.  This particular one indicates a 1.0, or 100% of the climate mean.  The (green) indicates what the ensemble is forecasting.  In this case 1.5, or 150% of the mean for the Atlantic basin.  The date is for OCT. 06 – OCT. 12.  The 2 weeks prior indicate a 1.3 or 130% of the mean.

The following is the current and MJO forecast per the phase space diagrams.  We are currently in the “null” phase of the MJO, however the ensemble diagrams are still indicating the MJO to rotate around to a strong phase 8 in about 7 – 8 days, then continuing into phase 1.  Should this occur, we may see an increase in tropical activity.  From now through Oct. is when we need to watch for development from the CAG (Central American Gyre).  I have article links posted on this feature.
INITIAL AND MJO FORECAST ACCESS – S2 MODEL


ECMWF MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

The following chart will give you an idea of the strength of the MJO forecast based on the ECMWF forecast above, not by color, but by location of the ensemble members.  So, the further from the center, the stronger the MJO:


The following maps indicate tropical cyclone density (development) in relation to the MJO phases, with model forecasts located on the right, and actual observations located on the left:
DEVELOPMENT CORRELATION (DEPICTED BY ORANGE AND RED)

MJO ARTICLES
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/23/2/2009jcli2978.1.xml
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL106872
CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE INFORMATION (CLICK LINKS BELOW)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_American_gyre
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/145/5/mwr-d-16-0411.1.xml

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS