Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
PLEASE keep the residents of Texas in your prayers regarding the terrible flash flooding tragedy and those lost, and for the children and parents in MN.

I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you them in their entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   6
TOTAL HURRICANES:         1
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE

Not much change in the Atlantic since yesterday.  There is only one area being monitored and was recently designated INVEST 91L. Another notable wave is getting ready to exit the African continent, with another located just NE of it.  A good amount of dry air still persists over much of the Atlantic basin with the SAL still persistent, noted in pink.  
GOES 19 RGB DUST SATELLITE LOOP  


As of the CIMSS TPW 1200Z update, Tropical Waves were noted at the approximate locations.  Black lines represent the approximate wave axis.
CIMSS 12Z TPW ANALYSIS

The NHC is now at a HIGH (80%) probability for development regarding the tropical wave now INVEST 91L during the next 7 days.  The ECMWF EPS probability is now at 70%.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST 72 – 120 HOURS

Because the area has not been designated a cyclone, the NHC is not issuing updates as far as location and intensity.  However, analysis of the ATCF BTK report indicated at 12Z (8:00 a.m. EDT), the following information was available on INVEST 91L:
8:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 04
Location: 12.1°N; 33.5°W
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb / 29.85 in.
Max sustained: 25 mph
INVEST 91L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


Thunderstorm activity appears a little more consolidated this morning, and the wave is slightly better organized. The wave was moving slowly to the west.  Future track is still somewhat up in the air, however based on analysis of the current steering layer mean, and analysis of forecast steering layer maps (utilizing both shallow and mid layer), it appears 91L may continue on a more westward trajectory, especially if it remains slow to strengthen. Based on analysis of forecast steering maps, the subtropical ridge is forecast to expand for a brief period with a westerly flow remaining below 20N.  While either of the ensemble models could be correct, here are some things to remember.  The weaker this INVEST remains, the further west it will travel prior to being affected by any weakness in the western periphery of the ridge.  If it becomes stronger, then as the wave approaches any weakness, a more WNW component would ensue.  Based on my analysis of various forecast parameters, it appears the wave may remain weaker than projected by the GFS at the moment.  The problem I have with the GEFS 06Z ensemble guidance is that it appears to indicate a more WNW initial track, while the current track is W at 270 degrees.  Based on this, I am more inclined to side with the ECMWF EPS track for around the next 48 hours.  Based on current track guidance, I do not currently agree with the some of the guidance models, as they are mainly statistical (climate and persistence), meaning basically, these models base their tracks on what previous storms have done throughout the different hurricane seasons based on the location and motion of the current system.  For right now, based on this is the initialization phase, I prefer the southern most model track at this particular time of the TABS (Trajectory And Beta, Shallow).  Once we get guidance from the consensus aids and dynamical models, I’ll have a much better confidence factor in forecast track.  I am providing a link to some of the forecast steering maps for you to get a better idea.
CURRENT STEERING LAYER MEAN

ECMWF EPS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST 120 HOURS 06Z RUN


00Z FORECAST STEERING MAPS
https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/COMPSTEERATL_0z/comploop.html
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE (INITIAL)

The forecast based on model analysis calls for conditions to slowly improve beginning in approximately 48 hours. INVEST 91L was under only 5 – 10 kts of shear based on the CIMSS shear map.  SHIPS diagnostics indicated initial shear of 5 kts.  The streamline flow seemed to hint at the possibility of a radial shear pattern may be trying to slowly develop.  Upper level winds did not indicate any upper level outflow at the moment.  Based on analysis of the following forecast parameters, in about 48 hours, conditions are still forecast to improve, with an increase in precipitable water, 500 mb relative humidity, development of a radial shear pattern, and and a northern outflow channel.  Around this time in the forecast period, INVEST 91L should be entering close to 28.0C SST’s and somewhat higher ocean heat content.  Based on this, I believe 91L should continue to slowly become better organized during the next 48 hours, with a little more steady strengthening beginning at approximately 72 hours into the period.  Based on this, we could possibly see our next depression by the end of the weekend, and if forecast conditions materialize as projected, possibly GABRIELLE in about 72+ hours.
ECMWF MSLP, TPW, 500 MB RH, WIND SHEAR, 200 MB WIND FORECAST 48 HOURS  





I will continue to closely monitor INVEST 91L for any significant changes to forecast conditions during the next 72 hours.

Elsewhere, I will be monitoring the tropical wave getting ready to exit the African coast during the next 72 hours for any signs of organization.
EATL SATELLITE LOOP


I have no change in my forecast thinking, in that we should see an increase in activity near the end of the second week of  Sep.  Though there are still discrepancies between the ECMWF and GFS ensemble CHI200 anomalies forecasts in relation to the MJO phase space forecast diagrams, the 2 following models have been very good at predicting the MJO evolution so far this season, and still indicate the MJO to rotate into phases 1 and 2, which favors tropical development in the Atlantic / Caribbean basins.  In fact, the ECMWF forecast continues to come better aligned with the S2 model.
MJO FORECAST ACCESS – S2 MODEL

Note the orange, green, and blue ensemble members of the ECMWF model.
ECMWF MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM

DEVELOPMENT CORRELATION (DEPICTED BY ORANGE AND RED)

The following are today’s updated graphics from the JMA model CHI200 anomalies forecast.  Maps 2 and 3 indicate favorable MJO conditions for development in our basins.
JMA CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST SEP. 06 – SEP. 12 (PHASE 3 AND 4)

SEP. 13 – SEP. 19 (PHASE 1)

SEP. 20 – OCT. 03 (PHASE 1 GOING INTO 2)

Elsewhere, I am not expecting any development for the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS