Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
PLEASE keep the residents of Texas in your prayers regarding the terrible flash flooding tragedy and those lost, and for the children and parents in MN.

I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you them in their entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   6
TOTAL HURRICANES:         1
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE

Not much change in the Atlantic since yesterday.  I continue to monitor INVEST 91L.  Another notable wave is in the EATL.  A good amount of dry air still persists over much of the Atlantic basin with the SAL still persistent, noted in pink.  
GOES 19 RGB DUST SATELLITE LOOP  


The NHC is now at a LOW (30%) probability for development regarding INVEST 91L during the next 7 days.  The ECMWF EPS probability has lowered to 20%
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST 72 – 120 HOURS

Because the area has not been designated a cyclone, the NHC is not issuing updates as far as location and intensity.  However, analysis of the ATCF BTK report indicated at 12Z (8:00 a.m. EDT), the following information was available on INVEST 91L  The information was late in updating, and the latest guidance was updated at 06Z:
8:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 06
Location: 11.8°N; 39.3°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb / 29.85 in.
Max sustained: 30 mph
INVEST 91L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


The INVEST continues to move slowly toward the west (280 deg.), based on past and current co-ordinates, and satellite loop imagery.  This forward motion is due to the INVEST being located around the southern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge noted in the current steering layer.  Based on analysis of forecast steering maps, INVEST 91L should continue on a westward motion for at least the next 48 hours, prior to most guidance loosing the system.  Again, keep in mind, the weaker this INVEST remains, the further west it will travel prior to being affected by any weakness in the western periphery of the ridge.  Based on this, I have to currently agree with the 06Z track guidance southern most tracks, and with the TVCA consensus model track.  My reasoning will be explained in the future intensity portion of this forecast.
CURRENT STEERING LAYER MEAN

06Z TRACK GUIDANCE 


IF you remember me mentioning this discrepancy in forecast conditions among ALL the models, with the ECMWF indicating less favorable conditions in the forecast, and the GFS indicating a more favorable forecast environment for 91L…based on this mornings analysis, the ECMWF was the closest.  Water vapor satellite loop imagery indicates the presence of much drier air closely surrounding the system, with some intrusion into the center on the west side. 
91L WATER VAPOR LOOP

Recent TPW images show a reduction in precipitable water.  Even now being located over a little warmer SST’s and slightly more favorable OHC, the dry air does not appear to be subsiding.  I did notice in analysis, the other possible problem lies with the area (wave) to it’s SE.  Analysis indicates the area is a fairly large and broad circulation, with at least 4 smaller circulations around that area.  Analysis of surface convergence and upper divergence maps indicate these parameters have shifted from 91L to over the larger wave area.  Given this “competition”, and persistent dry air, I do believe 91L will continue to have problems, and may fail to develop if forecast conditions show no change.  In fact, all of the global models, including the hurricane forecast models drop 91L in about 24 – 36 hours.  SHIPS guidance maintains low shear and minimal favorable mid level humidity during the next 92 – 120 hours, however based on what has occurred with 91L, I am less apt to side with this solution.  SHIPS does however lose the system after 120 hours.
91L TPW

I will continue to closely monitor INVEST 91L for any significant changes to forecast conditions during the next 24 – 48hours.

Elsewhere, I will be monitoring the tropical wave located near 25W longitude during the next 72 hours for any signs of development.  You’ll notice the various vortices I mentioned in the visible loop imagery below.
EATL SATELLITE LOOP


Elsewhere, an area of disturbed weather continues to persist near Panama.  Conditions at time of analysis indicated a favorable environment for development, however given the proximity to land, and the fact it should continue west into Nicaragua / Honduras, I do not believe a depression will occur at the moment.  It’s a little early to be certain, however I am going to continue to monitor this wave to see if we get some consolidation into one entity and see if any development begins to occur.
CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP

Elsewhere, I am not expecting any development for the next 5 – 7 days.

Call me stubborn, but I have no change in my forecast thinking, in that we should see an increase in activity near the end of the second week of  Sep., closer to mid month.  Though there are still discrepancies between the ECMWF and GFS ensemble CHI200 anomalies forecasts in relation to the MJO phase space forecast diagrams, the 2 following models have been very good at predicting the MJO evolution so far this season, and still indicate the MJO to rotate into phases 1 and 2, which favors tropical development in the Atlantic / Caribbean basins.  In fact, the ECMWF forecast continues to come better aligned with the S2 model.  The current state of the MJO, is in what we term the “null” phase.
MJO FORECAST ACCESS – S2 MODEL

ECMWF MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM

CURRENT MJO

DEVELOPMENT CORRELATION (DEPICTED BY ORANGE AND RED)

The following  graphics are from the JMA model CHI200 anomalies forecast.  Maps 2 and 3 indicate favorable MJO conditions for development in our basins.
JMA CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST SEP. 06 – SEP. 12 (PHASE 3 AND 4)

SEP. 13 – SEP. 19 (PHASE 1)

SEP. 20 – OCT. 03 (PHASE 1 GOING INTO 2)

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS