Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!
I will be out of the office Oct. 06 and Oct. 7 for family events. 

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   9
TOTAL HURRICANES:         4
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE

The NHC is now at a HIGH (70%) probability for development regarding newly designated INVEST 95L during the next 7 days.  The ECMWF EPS probability is at 80%
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST 72 HOURS


Because the area has not been designated a cyclone, the NHC is not issuing updates as far as location and intensity.  However, analysis of the ATCF BTK report indicated at 18Z (2:00 p.m. EDT), the following information was available on INVEST 95L:
2:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 05
Location: 8.1°N; 27.4°W
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb / 29.83 in.
Max sustained: 35 mph
INVEST 95L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


The INVEST is moving toward the west (280 deg.), based on past and current co-ordinates, and satellite loop imagery.  Based on analysis of forecast steering maps, INVEST 95L should change shortly to a WNW motion, and remain on that motion for at least the next 72 – 96 hours, prior to being impacted by a weakness in the ridge and moving on a more NWLY track thereafter.  Given the system is still slowly organizing and guidance is in the initialization phase, I will continue to monitor future forecast steering as actual track will depend once again, on the intensity of the system, and intensity and orientation of ridge / trough interaction.  At the moment though, guidance looks fair, and I prefer the consensus guidance (TVCN / TVCX) in the ATCF guidance, and the TVCA  consensus from the NCAR model guidance.
18Z TRACK GUIDANCE

18Z ATCF GUIDANCE

18Z HURRICANE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE

Analysis of the global models and SHIPS Diagnostic product indicated that TPW (Total Precipitable Water)  will slowly increase, becoming more favorable and 700 – 500 mb relative humidity values are forecast to remain above the minimum 60% value needed for tropical cyclone development.  These conditions, based on initial analysis, are forecast to remain with INVEST 95L for at least the next 120 hours (5 days).  In addition, wind shear is forecast by SHIPS to remain below 15 kts for the first 48 – 72 hours, with a 12 hours increase to 19 kts thereafter, then back below 15 kts, with a fluctuating radial shear pattern.  Models indicated zero zonal shear in the current analysis up to at least 120 hours.  Also, analysis of the 200 mb wind pattern indicated a good upper level outflow to become established.  As of analysis, a radial shear pattern was over INVEST 95L with an upper level outflow pattern seemingly becoming established.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR 95L

CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS 95L

Based on my analysis, conditions are favorable for continued organization and strengthening, and if the forecast conditions are accurate, I expect 95L to become a Tropical Depression in approximately 24 – 36 hours, and Tropical Storm Jerry soon thereafter.  Based on forecast conditions, I do believe this will be our next hurricane.  Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system closely.

I will continue to closely monitor INVEST 95L for any significant changes to forecast conditions during the next 24 – 72 hours.

There has still been no change to my forecast thinking in an increase in tropical activity in about a week.  The updated MJO forecast from the ECMWF indicate members show the MJO in the favorable phases for the remainder of the month.  The black line represents the forecast MJO rotation, which travels through phases 1, 2 and 3.
ECMWF MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

Ensemble members are still hinting at a pickup in activity as well.  These models represent where each member “thinks” an area of low pressure “may” develop.  ECMWF EPS has 51 members, the GFS (GEFS) has 21 members, and the CMC has 20.
ECMWF, GFS AND CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBER WISE 9 – 10 DAY MSLP FORECAST



Elsewhere, I am not expecting any development during the next 5 days.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS