Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
PLEASE keep the residents of Texas in your prayers regarding the terrible flash flooding tragedy.  Please pray for ALL of the souls lost, especially the young children, and pray for comfort, guidance and recovery for the survivors.

I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you read in the entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   3
TOTAL HURRICANES:         0
MAJOR HURRICANES:        0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (LINKED)

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK (LINKED)

WPC (LINKED) AND NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS 7 DAY PRECIPITATION TOTAL 


As of the CIMSS TPW 1300Z update, Tropical Waves were noted at the approximate locations.  Black lines represent the approximate wave axis.
CIMSS 13Z TPW ANALYSIS

Atlantic satellite loop imagery indicates two notable tropical waves near Africa.  The one that has just exited the continent will be monitored over the next 96 hours. Water vapor imagery still shows a lot of dry air over most of the Atlantic basin, however it appears moisture has increased with the waves near Africa.
ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


Dust RGB imagery indicates African dust in the pink coloring:
DUST RGB SATELLITE LOOP


African IR satellite indicates a reduction in thunderstorm activity over Africa. 
MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE FULL DISC 

The NHC is not expecting any tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

As some of you have heard me mention before on how quickly model solutions and forecast conditions can change, sometimes in as little as 24 hours well, guess what?  Today, there is a little flip in the switch for both the areas I am monitoring for the CATL in regard to a tropical wave at around 72 hours in the forecast period, and the area regarding the SEUS and Gulf coast states.

The recent updated ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation probability forecast has now DECREASED the probability for a wave that just exited Africa and be near 30 – 40W in around 72 hours.  The models has been consistent with around a 60% probability over the past 48 hours.  Now, on the current update, the probability is at approximately 30%.  Quite the change I should say.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY JUL 31

Analysis of the global models indicate although a very small, weak area of low pressure could come to fruition, forecast conditions have degraded from very favorable for slow development, to marginal at best, based on analysis of the wind shear, 500 mb RH, and TPW forecast maps.  The mid level moisture and TPW forecast maps now indicate some possibly dry air intrusion from the west, with the wind shear forecast indicating the radial shear pattern to be centered well west of the area, vice directly overhead.  To save space I will be utilizing the ECMWF graphics:
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 63 HOURS JUL. 30

ECMWF 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST

ECMWF TPW FORECAST

ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST (BLACK CIRCLE INDICATES WAVE IN RELATION TO RADIAL SHEAR PATTERN)

The current CHI200 anomalies forecast has backed off as well, indicating upward motion not as strong as yesterdays forecast.
ECMWF CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST

So, this basically now represents an uncertainty as far as any development in the CATL during the next 72 – 96 hours and the forecast conditions do warrant less of a probability at the moment.  ALWAYS keep in mind…the forecasts I issue are only as good as the forecast information I have to work with and interpret.  I will continue to monitor the Atlantic for any significant changes to forecast conditions.

You also saw in my forecast the other day, about a possible repeat of conditions that had spawned INVEST 93L and 94L previously.  The models have somewhat flipped on this as well.  I will be monitoring this, as the current models runs do not appear to indicate a trough split initially.  The moisture and rainfall pattern now indicates a stalled frontal boundary may remain intact, with the premise of lower MSLP being concentrated off the SEUS coastal area in about 5 – 7 days.  This is noted in the current TPW and 500 mb RH forecast animations, with the main portion of the moisture pattern remaining initially over the land areas during the first 96 hours.  Although the current ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation probability indicates 40 – 45% probability for a depression off the SEUS, I am going to continue to monitor this for consistency during the next 96 hours given the sudden shift of the probabilities, since by 168 hours global models are still indicating a lowering of MSLP anomalies in the north central Gulf and Gulf coastal region.  
WPC FRONTS 7 DAY FORECAST

ECMWF TPW AND MID LEVEL RH FORECAST


MSLP ANOMALIES
Elsewhere, I do not expect any Tropical Cyclone formation during the next 7 days.

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS