Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
PLEASE keep the residents of Texas in your prayers regarding the terrible flash flooding tragedy and those lost, and for the children and parents in MN.

I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you them in their entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   6
TOTAL HURRICANES:         1
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE

The Atlantic basin remains quiet.  Two tropical waves are noted over the African continent, with the smaller one near 10W most likely being the one that will be monitored during the next 7 days for possible development.  There is still a good amount of dry air over the Atlantic, due mostly to the SAL believe it or not.  Generally, this time of the season the SAL has diminished more.  Dust is noted in pink in the satellite loop.
GOES 19 RGB DUST SATELLITE LOOP  

As of the CIMSS TPW 1100Z update, Tropical Waves were noted at the approximate locations.  Black lines represent the approximate wave axis.
CIMSS 11Z TPW ANALYSIS

The NHC has increased the probability of development for a tropical wave that is forecast to exit the coast of Africa on Sunday to LOW (30%).  The ECMWF EPS formation probability has increased to 45% – 50%.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST 72 – 120 HOURS

Based on my analysis of the 00Z model runs and siding with the ECMWF, as the wave exits Africa, initial forecast conditions appear to be favorable in all aspects.  At the 72 hour period in the forecast, the Total Precipitable Water (TPW), mid level RH (500 mb Relative Humidity), wind shear, and upper level winds (200 mb streamlines) show to be favorable.  Wind shear indicates a radial shear pattern and the 200 mb streamlines forecast indicates some upper level divergence (outflow pattern).
ECMWF TPW, 500 MB RH, WIND SHEAR, AND 200 MB WINDS FORECAST 72 HOURS




These conditions are pretty favorable, however with the presence of cooler SST anomalies, development should be slow to occur.  Based on my analysis, these conditions are currently forecast to remain with the wave out to approximately 120 hours (5 days into the forecast period).  At around this time, although surface moisture and upper level winds are forecast to remain fairly favorable, it appears mid level dry air begins to work its way into the system.  This would be a detrimental factor for any steady strengthening, or for strengthening at all.  Based on the fact we have noting to really follow right now, I will be monitoring this wave to see just how conditions come together during the next 72 hours.
ECMWF 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST

Elsewhere, models have been consistent in the formation of an area of low pressure off the SE Florida  coast / northern Bahamas area in about 3 – 4 days.  Having analyzed various parameters, it appears this may be more of a coastal / offshore storm scenario, based on forecast conditions indicating more of a baroclinic pattern, in that surface to mid level moisture will take on an elongated pattern with limited marginal mid level moisture, with SW shear forecast to take shape, pretty much looking like a “frontal” pattern.  In fact, a frontal boundary is forecast to have a low attached IVO the Bahamas on SEP. 01.  The current ECMWF EPS formation probability remains low at 25%.
ECMWF MSLP FORECAST

WPC SURFACE FORECAST SEP. 01, 2025

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST 120 – 168 HOURS

The ECMWF EPS probability is most likely remaining low due to this, and the fact that the cyclone phase evolution analysis and forecast indicate this low to remain cold core in nature.  Based on these factors, I am not expecting any tropical development.
CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION THERMAL DIAGRAM


I have no change in my forecast thinking, in that we should see an increase in activity near the end of the second week of Sep.  Though there are current discrepancies between the ECMWF and GFS ensemble CHI200 anomalies forecasts in relation to the MJO phase space forecast diagrams, the 2 following models have been very good at predicting the MJO evolution so far this season, and still indicate the MJO to rotate into phases 1 and 2, which favors tropical development in the Atlantic / Caribbean basins.
MJO FORECAST ACCESS – S2 MODEL

Note the orange, green, and blue ensemble members of the ECMWF model.
ECMWF MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM

JMA CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST UPDATE SEP. 13 – SEP. 26

Elsewhere, I am not expecting any development for the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS