Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
PLEASE keep the residents of Texas in your prayers regarding the terrible flash flooding tragedy.  Please pray for ALL of the souls lost, especially the young children, and pray for comfort, guidance and recovery for the survivors.

I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you read in the entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.  

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   3
TOTAL HURRICANES:         0
MAJOR HURRICANES:        0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

As of the CIMSS TPW 1300Z update, Tropical Waves were noted at the approximate locations.  Black lines represent the approximate wave axis.
CIMSS 13Z TPW ANALYSIS

Atlantic satellite loop imagery indicates a broad, large tropical wave near 66W,  with another that has just entered the EATL off the coast of Africa.  Water vapor loop imagery still shows a large area of dry, however coverage over the MDR has decreased somewhat, with extension NE into the subtropical Atlantic, and some moistening west of 40W.
ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


Dust RGB imagery indicates African dust in the pink coloring:
DUST RGB SATELLITE LOOP


African IR satellite indicates while weak, activity remains somewhat increased as far as the ITCZ/Wave Train is concerned.
MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE FULL DISC 

The NHC has taken an interest in the area I have been mentioning the past few days in my outlooks.  UPDATE: The NHC has designated a LOW (30%) probability of  Tropical Cyclone development from the stalled frontal boundary over the SEUS / Mid Atlantic area during the next 7 days:
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

From the NHC: An area of low pressure is expected to form on Saturday along a frontal system off of the southeastern coast of the United States. Additional slow development could occur through early next week as the system moves slowly east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent.
Based on analysis of various model parameters, this has come to fruition from a trough split.  The current ECMWF EPS Formation Probability forecast still indicates a high probability over the area of interest, while lowering the probability over the Gulf of Mexico.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS

SEUS SATELLITE LOOP INDICATING DEVELOPING LOW


I have no change to my forecast thinking.  Initial conditions based on analysis of global models show conditions favorable for some possible slow development during the next 24 – 36 hours. The only change from the model analysis is, the initial radial shear pattern is forecast to remain over the low for at least the next 72 hours, which favors development.  However, analysis of precipitable water and mid level relative humidity indicate the probability for dry air intrusion on the western side in approximately 48 hours into the forecast period.  Based on the surface wind forecast, should development occur, this may be sub-tropical at best, with the strongest surface winds located away from the COC.  After 72 hours, I would expect this to become more of an Extra-tropical low as conditions transform to a more baroclininc nature.  The low should continue to move off to the ENE to NE over the next 96 hours, before weakening.
ECMWF MSLP FORECAST ANIMATION

ECMWF SURFACE WINDS FORECAST

Although the probability for the piece of energy that backs westward has lowered, I still cannot rule out some possible flooding where the heaviest rainfall totals are forecast.
WPC 7 DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FORECAST (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS 7 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST

I will continue to monitor this area during the next 48 hours for any significant changes in the forecast, and will keep you updated as necessary.

Elsewhere, there is still no change in the forecast pattern with strong high pressure to be centered over Quebec, and the northeast portion of the U.S.  Long story short, this setup is what “we” like to refer to as the “ridge over troubled water”.  The area south if this ridge pattern setup needs to be monitored, as surface pressures naturally lower to the south of this setup, and development can occur.  Though I do not expect any tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 – 7 days, this setup could provide conditions over the next 3 – 5 days for the wave near 66W to possibly try to recover, albeit a slim prob.  However, there could be another entity in the works beyond this. 
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST 120 HOURS

The entity I mentioned above, could possibly be development in the CATL within the next 7 – 9 days in the period, beginning around the 9th of August.  THIS DOES NOT CONSTITUTE DEFINITE DEVELOPMENT.  Although I have only 2 models in analysis today (ECMWF and UKMET) that support this, and I will be looking for consistency and other model agreement.  Continued analysis of the MJO forecast indicates we are going to enter the most favorable phases for development.  In fact, the most recent MJO phase space diagram indicates we could see the MJO in phase 2 for almost the entire month of August.  It was also noted that vertical instability may be slowly inching higher toward climatology, possibly due to less distortion regarding the current SST anomalies in the Atlantic.  Ensemble model members also indicated an increase in tropical activity during the MJO time frame
ECMWF DAY 9 AND UKMET DAY 7 MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST MAPS


The ECMWF indicates very favorable conditions at that time, with a radial shear pattern over the supposed low, ample precipitable water, and 500 mb RH values


MDR CURRENT VERTICAL INSTABILITY

The following is updated MJO phase space diagrams.
ACCESS-S2 MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST


Again, I will continue to look for more model agreement and consistency over the next few days.  Elsewhere, I do not expect any tropical cyclone development during the next 5 days.

The following links will connect you too the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS