Using 2 Day first as we are in that range...

Also NHC marks the spot with a red X.

This is where they place 94L

I'll say it again.

NHC expects a TD to form in 

Central & NW Bahamas.

That said....

..it'll form in real time where it forms.

But good to remember their timing!

Also remember Recon sampling the atmosphere..

..as I type. That data is priceless.

For upcoming model runs...

Compare and contrast with below from 8 AM

Inched a drop closer to Florida

I'll update the blog or start a new one.

This afternoon.

Today is a day for 94L to move back into the water.

Parts currently over DR & PR 

Mona Passage

How far to the right does it go first?

Check back later but keep reading!

2AM from NHC 80% 94L

Going to write a while, while waiting for the 8 AM from the NHC. The 2 AM is above, so you can compare and contrast once the 8 AM is out. All eyes are on Invest 94L as you can obviously see as Humberto is watching as are we all. Hispaniola can disrupt the circulation of a weak hurricane or tropical storm, but in this case it can do odd things to assist or delay development of a tropical wave. While our tropical wave has the name Invest 94L it is still a tropical wave. Lots of updrafts, downdrafts and oozing around in the atmosphere it's energy and convection. Let's look back a bit and remember how we got here.

 There has been an ongoing pattern the last month when it was relatively quiet, that weak waves got into this area near the Islands and flared up a bit. Each wave seemed to have more "there" there yet they did not get the attention of the models or the NHC.  When the flip was switched recently to "go for lift off" in the Atlantic again, models began to sniff around at a wave that was once highlighted way back when and immediately dropped it from the NHC Main Screen. Then it popped it up again near the Islands and became Invest 94L with high chances of development further up the road closer to the Bahamas. This image from September 18th shows one of these waves that rained on PR and VI and then rained on parts of the Dominican Republic, but nothing official developed. When this keeps happening with regenerated tropical waves in the same spot, you have a pattern that is developing. Pattern recognition this is called. 

Wideshot shows similarities ...

...Front across US.

Hurricane far out at sea
Now we have a tropical storm to E of 94L
Strong reds down near SW Carib popping up.

A reminder October is coming...

And a big of color in a wave train to it's East.

It's also late September. Zooming in below.

This is a close up of Invest 94L
..in a similar location as the image above.
And Humberto staring at Invest 94L

For Extra Credit there's bonus convection in Bahamas.

Reason we use different satellite imagery is......
........each shows something different.

Let's look at the image below.