Lake Erie at Presque Isle State Park, Dec 2016 (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

9 October 2025

On Tuesday meteorologist Ross Ellet posted on Facebook that the water level in Lake Erie will drop 5 inches in the next month according to the U.S Army Corps of Engineers.

This sounds astonishing until you realize that Lake Erie’s water level fluctuates seasonally and is normally at its lowest in winter. You can see it on this GLERL graph comparing this year’s water level (2025 YTD in blue) to last year (2024 in red).

Great Lakes Water Level Dashboard, Lake Erie Master Gauge as of 9 Oct 2025 (GLERL NOAA)

Notice that the record maximums and minimums, shaded in pale blue, differ by 6.4 feet! Lake Erie has ranged about 3 feet higher and lower than it is today.

You usually experience these fluctuations only at the beach but I do remember flooded roads at Magee Marsh during high water in May 2019.

(water levels an Lake Erie beach at Long Point Provincial Park, Ontario from Wikimedia Commons at these links: low water wide beach in 2017, high water no beach in 2019)

Looking at the historical averages for the last five years, Lake Erie has been going down overall.

Great Lakes Water Level Dashboard, Lake Erie Long Term Record as of 9 Oct 2025 (GLERL NOAA)

But right now it’s at the 1918-2024 Long Term Average, so there’s nothing to worry about.

p.s. Speaking of worry, I remember when Lake Erie was very polluted in the early 1970’s. Fish died all the time and we did not wade or swim in it.

While looking for photos for this article I found a file photo from June 1973 with the caption: “WHITE CITY BEACH SIGN [Cleveland, Ohio] WARNS AGAINST SWIMMING IN POLLUTED LAKE ERIE. TO REDUCE POLLUTION LIFEGUARDS POUR CHLORINE INTO THE WATER ONCE EVERY HOUR.”

WHITE CITY BEACH SIGN [Cleveland, Ohio] WARNS AGAINST SWIMMING IN POLLUTED LAKE ERIE. TO REDUCE POLLUTION LIFEGUARDS POUR CHLORINE INTO THE WATER ONCE EVERY HOUR (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

Water pollution was so bad in the U.S. back then that it prompted the Clean Water Act of 1972. Only a year after the law was passed, Lake Erie was still in terrible shape because it took a long time to clean up.

Nowadays we take clean water for granted, but if the Clean Water Act is weakened we will slip back into the easy path of draining and dumping all kinds of yuk into the water.

Meanwhile it’s good to remember that “You don’t know what you’ve got til it’s gone.” — lyrics from Joni Mitchell Big Yellow Taxi