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Quick post this morning to say TD-ONE E is now Tropical Sorm Amanda! Look how nice she looks! As she moves out into the Pacific she is forecast to slowly fall apart and not be a threat to any land area, so the name Amanda will stick around it seems. NHC keeps her at Tropical Storm strength on the first advisory they put out.
As I have always said ...weather is locational. We look at the weather maps from our own perspective and not the other person's perspective. I follow Allan Huffman in the Raleigh area who is a good source for everyone in every area, but he is here in Raleigh. He is very cautious, careful and data driven vs some who hype every possibility online. I like that. But he did discuss long range tropics today on Patreon as it's a valid topic and everyone is asking. Despite the growing El Nino that often lowers our total numbers in the Atlantic, there are still storms, still hurricanes and it truly on takes one. Name another hurricane from 1992 and you will be hard pressed to find anyone that remembers any other hurricane but Andrew. Well, professional tropical meteorologists can but most cannot.
So never say never.
As for those models....
Euro shows a storm in the Gulf.
The Euro shows a landfall.
Tomorrow who knows what it shows...
...very long range models.
Wednesday June 17th.
How far out can you get?
Makes landfall ..
Aims at FL Panhandle.
But goes UP inland.
Caught my attention...
The GFS shows June 13th...
...my friends in Miami sent me this all day.
My brother sent me models.
Yes, I know...
"they are very far out, not reliable"
But they are all watching.
Ends up fairly close to the EURO
I don't trust models beyond the 5 day.
Sometimes the 7 day.
This far out it's all speculation.
There's always a model running.
Models find storms.
Models lose storms.
Ignore the hype...
..ignore it all.
Focus on 1 thing.
Hurricane Preparation.
I know it's expensive to prepare and there is nothing out there and it's El Nino! In the Carolinas where I live we just hold onto hurricane supplies and use them as Winter Storm Supplies! And, with El Nino who knows we might have a real winter?
Have a great day. It's a beautiful cool day today in Raleigh and I'm going out and enjoying it. The temperatures climb fast tomorrow into the high 80s. I do think 2026 Hurricane Season will have lots of invariables and surprises down the road. In general it will be an El Nino Hurricane Season, but there's an inconsistency this year and the weather has been bouncy. My kids in Denver barely had snow, then they had snow in the late Spring and sent me pics as if it had snowed in Raleigh. Normally, after the first few snowfalls in Denver they stop sending pictures. The record we broke in Raleigh today was from 1966, so let's look at the 1966 Hurricane Season just for fun.
And no not an El Nino Year...
...well was coming off an El Nino year.
Scribble Scrabble tracks.
Have a good day.
Gotta run
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on X
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elsewhere whatever
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