Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
PLEASE keep the residents of Texas in your prayers regarding the terrible flash flooding tragedy and those lost.  

I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you read in the entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.  I was unable to provide a forecast yesterday, as I had an unexpected meeting with my primary care doctor, prior to going to my chiropractor appointment.  

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   5
TOTAL HURRICANES:         0
MAJOR HURRICANES:        0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

Satellite imagery indicates not much change in Atlantic, however areas of interest are still noted.  Another wave is seen exiting Africa, and another is noted west of it.  Water vapor imagery indicates drier air is mostly W. of the EATL and CATL.
ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


Africa satellite loop imagery indicates tropical wave activity has once again increased over Africa.
MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE 

Beginning closer to home, the area in the Gulf of Mexico has been designated INVEST 98L:
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

Since this is going through the initialization stages, and is not a cyclone, updates come through the ATCF system.  As of the 12Z ATCF BTK report, the following information was available on INVEST 98L:
8:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 14
Location: 20.0°N; 92.6°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb / 29.85 in.
Max sustained: 30 mph
From the NHC:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/141139_MIATWOAT.shtmlBased on analysis of current steering and the BTK product, the disturbance is moving to the WNW (305 degrees) at 12 mph.  Based on analysis of forecast steering layer maps, I expect this motion of WNW to NW to continue pretty much for the remainder of the forecast period, with this affecting the Texas / Mexico border in about 36 – 48 hours.  Based on my analysis, I agree with the 12Z track guidance, and prefer the TVCA guidance:
12Z RAL GUIDANCE INVEST 98L
 
INVEST 98L IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP

It was noted in water vapor imagery some dry air was west of the “center” which is currently affecting development.  The system is currently under little to no shear, and currently lacks upper level outflow.
98L WIND SHEAR

Based on analysis of global models, especially the ECMWF, conditions are forecast to improve by later today.  The modeling indicates an increase in mid level moisture, total precipitable water, a developing radial shear pattern, and a well established 200 mb upper level outflow pattern.  The only problem is, these conditions will be very brief in nature, and 98L will only have approximately a 24 hour window to attain tropical depression status.  IF everything comes together as shown in the modeling and remains in place, I do believe 98L could become a tropical depression prior to coming ashore.  HOWEVER, the forecast conditions MUST develop exactly as shown.  The NHC has designated a LOW (20%) probability of this, while the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probability forecast indicates a 65% probability.
ECMWF  500 MB RH, TPW, AND WIND SHEAR FORECAST CONDITIONS ANIMATION



ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS

I will continue to monitor INVEST 98L during the next 24 hours for any significant changes in the forecast.

Tropical Storm ERIN continues to move to the west.  The latest information is based on the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC:
11:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 14
Location: 16.4°N; 49.7°W
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb / 29.50 in.
Max sustained: 60 mph
ERIN is currently moving toward the west (just slightly south of west at 265 degrees).  Based on my analysis of not only global models, but current and forecast steering layers maps, ERIN should continue on this general motion for approximately the next 24 hours.  Thereafter, a more WNW motion should begin, and ERIN should move in this motion out to approximately 48 hours in the forecast period.  While I agree with the track guidance in that ERIN eventually turns into the weakness which will develop in the ridge, the intensity of ERIN, as well as the strength and position of the ridge / trough combination developing over the NE, will determine the exact path that ERIN eventually takes.  Based on my analysis, and though I concur with the NHC forecast track, I am a little left with the TVCA consensus guidance, and actually like the ECMWF forecast motion.
ERIN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


12Z TRACK GUIDANCE (LINKED FOR LARGER IMAGE)

NHC FORECAST TRACK AND CONE FROM NHC AND HURRTRACK


ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 120 HOURS

The environment surrounding ERIN has become more favorable, with ERIN having been able to mix out a good amount of the dry air that has been hindering her, and becoming better organized during the past 6 hours.  TPW has increased, and a radial shear pattern is established and centered just NW of the LLC.  It is recently noted that an upper level outflow pattern is becoming established.  The TPW image shows the increase in moisture.

Based on analysis of forecast wind shear, upper level winds, mid level RH and surface moisture (TPW – Total Precipitable Water), conditions for ERIN are forecast to improve during the next 24 – 36 hours.  The current radial shear pattern is forecast to become better established and defined, and become centered over the storm, along with an upper level outflow pattern.  Based on analysis of forecast conditions becoming a little more favorable than was shown 24 hours prior, ERIN could most likely undergo a brief period of R.I. (Rapid Intensification) within the next 36 -48 hours.  ERIN will be entering higher SST’s in about 24 hours, and higher OHC (Ocean Heat Content) values in about 24 – 36 hours.  The first portion of the OHC increase is at around 50KJ/cm2 which not only helps with strengthening, but it the minimum value required for rapid intensification.  Once ERIN gets to 60W, these values increase to 75 – 100KJ/cm2.  This, and the combination of the favorable conditions mentioned, SHOULD allow for some brief rapid intensification.  Although SHIPS guidance and the NHC indicate wind shear may increase briefly at around 48 – 72 hours, models indicate intensification should continue, however this should occur a a little slower rate.  Since the forecast shear value is approximately 20 – 25 kts,the presence of higher OHC and establishment of an upper level outflow pattern, should somewhat negate the increase in wind shear.  The following is an article regarding this from the AMS Journal
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/149/12/MWR-D-21-0141.1.xml
CIMSS TPW

OHC MAP FROM CIMSS

Based on this, I now expect ERIN to continue a steady rate of intensification during the next 24, with a very good chance of brief rapid intensification period at around 36 – 48 hours.  Based on this, analysis of SHIPS diagnostics, and more accurate tools, I do believe ERIN now has the potential to become a major CAT 3 hurricane in approximately 72 – 96 hours.  Again, to achieve this, there has to be NO DEVIATION in the forecast parameters mentioned.  Currently I agree with the NHC intensity forecast at the moment.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT 14/1500Z 16.4N 49.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 16.9N 51.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 17.8N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 18.6N 57.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 19.4N 60.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 20.3N 63.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 21.3N 65.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 23.5N 68.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 26.5N 69.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
I will continue to monitor the situation for any significant changes during the next 72 hours.

Elsewhere, I will be monitoring the next 2 waves, one in EATL and the one just exiting Africa.  

Elsewhere, I am not expecting tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you too the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS