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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Good evening everyone!
This special statement is not to panic anyone, hype anything,  jump the gun or even guarantee anything will develop.  I look at it this way, it’s no worse than the NHC tagging a yellow circled area with a 0% probability of development.  As promised, while we’ve been going through quite a bit of severe weather, I have also been keeping an eye on the tropics.  In doing so, the following caught my attention.  The recent update of the ECMWF EPS cyclone formation probability forecast has indicated around the 240 – 288 (MAY 14 – 16) hour time in the forecast period, it appears there could be a medium probability for some type of development in the extreme W. Caribbean Sea.  It has been noticed a slight increase in the probabilities has occurred over the past 2 days.  I am using 2 different sites to show contrast:
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST (YESTERDAY AND TODAY)






Based on my analysis, a half decent probability may exist to possibly see something try to spin up just north of Panama in the mentioned time frame.  Based on the analysis of the 850 mb winds forecast of the ECMWF and ECMWF EPS charts, it appears that a weak signal of the CAG (Central American Gyre) will appear in the area, as noted by counter-clockwise turning in the wind field:
CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE (LINKED):

ECMWF WIND BARBS 850 MB

EPS

ECMWF 850 BM STREAMLINES

The current CHI200 anomalies forecast indicates very robust upward motion (strong divergence) in the upper atmosphere (200 mb) which is favorable for development.  The area will also be under the influence of the Right Rear Entrance region of a 200 mb jetstreak, which promotes divergence in the upper atmosphere (another positive factor).
ECMWF CHI 200 ANOMALIES FORECAST

ECMWF 200 MB WIND FORECAST

Forecast relative humidity values will be favorable from the surface to the mid levels of the atmosphere, and precipitable water (PWAT) values will be more than ample.  For tropical development, the ideal RH values are 60%+ from the surface up to 500 mb:
ECMWF FORECAST RH VALUES 850 MB, 700 MB AND 500 MB



PWAT FORECAST

Wind shear is currently off the charts, however by the time frame in the forecast period, the ECMWF indicates wind shear to reduce to a marginal level with a slight outflow pattern, with the GFS a little more bullish on the outflow pattern which would be slightly more favorable than the current ECMWF solution:
ECMWF AND GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST


Lastly, SST’s are running 28.0C (82.4F) and there is ample OHC (Ocean Heat Content)
SST AND OHC MAPS


So, pretty much in a nutshell, conditions look fairly favorable around the 14th – 16th of this month.  Again, this DOES NOT GUARANTEE we will see anything, but keep in mind the early development we’ve seen over the past few seasons, and that we now begin issuing Tropical Weather Outlooks on MAY 15.  IF anything becomes of this, it will most likely wind up in the EPAC.  Again, not hyping…just posting FACTS.

I will continue to monitor the area on and off over the next 10 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!