Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
This forecast is long and graphics intense.
STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   13*
TOTAL HURRICANES:         4
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3
* (12 TROPICAL…1 SUBTROPICAL)

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

FROM THE NHC
MELISSA REORGANIZING AND EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING SOON… …HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA

As of the 11:00 A.M. advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Tropical Storm Melissa:
11:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 23
Location: 15.4N;74.9W
Moving: NNW 2 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb / 29.62 in.
Max sustained: 45 mph
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/231449.shtml?
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/231447.shtml?
AVISO PUBLICO LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT3+shtml/231450.shtml?
DISCUSION
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATDSAT3+shtml/231452.shtml?

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

NHC AND HURRTRACKER GRAPHICS

NHC WATCHES AND WARNINGS

Melissa has been struggling with some moderate westerly wind shear.   Shear was around 25 – 30 kts over the system earlier, and has recently reduced to 20 kts. It was also noted in water vapor loop imagery that she is still battling and mixing out some drier air to her west.  Satellite loop imagery indicates the center is still partially exposed due to the storm being tilted toward the east in the vertical however the NHC indicates Melissa underwent some change recently, and the now developing structure may indicate the slow process of  lessening shear may be underway.  The following is from the NHC 11:00 a.m. update: Melissa’s structure has undergone a metamorphosis this morning. Convection developed up-shear of the system for the first time after the prior advisory, with some evidence of loose banding beginning to take shape. This structure could indicate that the westerly vertical wind shear that has been affecting the system the last couple of days is beginning to subside, and could allow the low and mid-level centers to become better aligned. For now though, the surface circulation remains rather broad and still tilted to the northeast with height.

A fairly strong outflow channel in the upper levels north of the center is noted, and albeit not optimal as of yet, based on upper level winds south of the center, air is being ventilated south of the center.  This and the combination of the very warm waters is having some negating effect of the wind shear.
CIMSS MELISSA WIND SHEAR

CIMSS MELISSA UPPER LEVEL WINDS

Based on analysis of global models and current SHIPS diagnostics, I am a little skeptical on the SHIPS diagnostics 700 – 500 mb RH forecast.  This is due to the SHIPS being derived from the GFS model, which with the recent update in forecast track, is the outlier and shows Melissa over and then north of Hispaniola.  So, based on my analysis of the ECMWF, the model indicates wind shear should begin to reduce at around 24 hours from now.  Thereafter, at around 48 – 72 hours in the forecast period, the model indicates the development of a pretty much textbook radial shear pattern and much better established 200 mb streamline pattern regarding upper level outflow by 72 – 96 hours.  This would create some very favorable divergence aloft.  The model still indicates a strong increase in precipitable water and mid level relative humidity.  Also, the system will be over  high OHC (Ocean Heat Content) of at least 100+ Kj/cm2, and SST’s of 30C.  OHC values of 50+ will sustain a hurricane, and also allow for rapid intensification if all other conditions are favorable.
NOAA AOML OHC MAP

ECMWF 96 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS




IF these conditions come to fruition especially with a reduction in wind shear and improved upper level outflow pattern, and becomes aligned vertically, I would expect to begin to see a more steady rate of organization and intensification, If the forecast conditions improve as indicated, we could see a brief period of R.I. occur, and Melissa could now possibly become a major hurricane.  However, keep in mind, the forecast conditions are going to have to occur EXACTLY as forecast, and Melissa WILL have to become aligned vertically…no exceptions.  At the moment, I currently agree with the NHC intensity forecast
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

Forecast path is spread, and should still be monitored until steering currents become stronger again.  Right now, Melissa is in very weak steering current pattern due to the orientation of the ridge to the west, and the very weak troughing to her north.  As the current trough / ridge forecast pattern progresses, we should have a better idea of motion.  In the short term, ridging from the west is supposed to work eastward, which should briefly allow for Melissa to move west to WNW.  Again, this will all depend on the intensity of Melissa and strength and orientation of the pattern.  Based on analysis of the more accurate guidance models, and consistency of these models, I concur with the NHC forecast track, and I prefer the TVCA consensus aid and HWFI model at the moment.  This IS NOT set in stone however, but appears to be the best solution at the moment.
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z HURRICANE FORECAST MODELS TRACK GUIDANCE

NHC FORECAST TRACK

HURRTRACKER GRAPHICS

ECMWF, ECMWF A.I., GFS AND CMC MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST ANIMATION 12 – 168 HOURS




ECMWF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION FORECAST


I will continue to monitor this situation closely during the next 96 – 120 hours. 

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS