Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
This forecast is long and graphics intense.  However, all of the information can make a difference, as the purpose of my site is to try and help keep anyone affected by these systems SAFE!
STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   13*
TOTAL HURRICANES:         4
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3
* (12 TROPICAL…1 SUBTROPICAL)

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

FROM THE NHC
…MELISSA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AND FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS WEEKEND… …LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND…

As of the 11:00 A.M. advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Tropical Storm Melissa:
11:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 25
Location: 16.5N;75.1W
Moving: WNW 1 mph
Min pressure: 982mb / 29.00 in.
Max sustained: 70 mph
Maximum sustained winds were at 70 mph which are just shy (4 mph) of being a CAT 1 hurricane.  Recent satellite loop imagery (visible) may indicate she is slowly beginning to intensify based on CDO and more pronounced banding features.  Based on this, Melissa could attain CAT 1 hurricane status by the intermediate advisory.
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


PLEASE USE THE NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK FOR HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WHICH INCLUDES STORM SURGE

NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/251458.shtml?
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/251452.shtml?
AVISO PUBLICO LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT3+shtml/251453.shtml?
DISCUSION
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATDSAT3+shtml/251459.shtml?

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

NHC AND HURRTRACKER GRAPHICS

RIP CURRENTS

NHC WATCHES AND WARNINGS

Melissa was under some moderate westerly wind shear this morning once again of approximately 20 kts.   Models have done a poor job at handling the wind shear forecast, especially SHIPS, which in the 12Z update only showed a value of 13 kts, as opposed to the CIMSS shear map indicating 20 kts.   A fairly strong outflow in the upper levels north and south of the center is noted, and albeit not optimal as of yet, air is being ventilated north and south of the center.  This and the combination of the very warm waters is having some negating effect of the wind shear.  You’ll note the radial pattern to the SW of the center.  The forecast calls for this to become centered over the storm in about 48 hours.
CIMSS MELISSA WIND SHEAR

CIMSS MELISSA UPPER LEVEL WINDS

Based on analysis of global models and current SHIPS diagnostics, I am still a little skeptical on the SHIPS diagnostics 700 – 500 mb RH forecast.    The ECMWF still indicates a strong increase in moisture.  Based on my analysis of the ECMWF and SHIPS (which has now come into better agreement on shear trend), the models indicate wind shear should begin to reduce at around 12 hours from now, possibly falling to single digit velocities.  Thereafter, through 72 hours in the forecast period from 12Z, the models indicate gradual development of a radial shear pattern over the system, and becoming established by 48 hours in the forecast period.  Analysis of the GFS zonal shear pattern indicates a lack of any real shear, with no zonal shear in the picture.  Analysis of the 200 mb streamline pattern regarding upper level outflow, indicates a well established, expanded pattern by 48 through 72 hours.  This would create some very favorable divergence aloft.  The model still indicates an increase in precipitable water and mid level relative humidity.  Also, the system will be over  high OHC (Ocean Heat Content) of at least 100+ Kj/cm2, and SST’s of 30C.  OHC values of 50+ will sustain a hurricane, and also allow for rapid intensification if all other conditions are favorable.
ECMWF TPW AND 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST ANIMATION 48 HOURS


GFS ZONAL SHEAR FORECAST

IF these conditions come to fruition especially with a reduction in wind shear and improved upper level outflow pattern as forecast, and the system becomes aligned vertically, I would expect to begin to see a more steady rate of organization and intensification.  If the forecast conditions improve as indicated, R.I. should occur, and Melissa could become a major hurricane.  SHIPS indicates in the recent update a 45% probability of an increase in wind speed of 25kt / 24 hr., (4.1 times climatological mean) and a 21% probability of a 65 kt increase in 72 hours (3.9 times climatological mean).  However, keep in mind, the forecast conditions are going to have to occur EXACTLY as forecast, and Melissa WILL have to remain aligned vertically…no exceptions.  Based on this, and forecast MSLP from all the models, at the moment, I currently agree with the NHC intensity forecast until I can see how the situation is evolving.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A CATASTROPHIC EVENT FOR THE ISLAND OF JAMAICA!  RESIDENTS UNDER THE HURRICANE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS SHOULD COMPLETE PREPARATIONS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

Models have come into much better agreement even though there is still a slight spread.  Right now, Melissa is in a very weak steering current pattern due to the orientation of the ridge to the west, and the very weak troughing to her north, and is pretty much stationary.  As the current trough / ridge forecast pattern progresses, we should have a better idea of motion.  In the short term, ridging from the west is supposed to work eastward, which should briefly allow for Melissa to move with a more westward component, slowly.  This ridge is forecast to become the stronger of the 2 and will allow for the slow westward motion.  As a deep trough moves southward over the SEUS and the ridge begins to erode, Melissa should make the move to the N and then NE.  There are some differences on where Melissa may approach Jamaica, and again, this will all depend on the intensity of Melissa and strength and orientation of the forecast steering pattern.  Based on analysis of the more accurate guidance models, and consistency of these models, I concur with the NHC forecast track, and I prefer the TVCA consensus aid and HCCA model at the moment.  This now appears to be most plausible solution at the moment.  I will however be monitoring Melissa closely for any significant changes.
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z HURRICANE FORECAST MODELS TRACK GUIDANCE

NHC FORECAST TRACK AND HURRTRACKER GRAPHICS






ECMWF, ECMWF A.I., GFS, CMC MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST HOURS AND HAFS- A, HAFS – B 48 HOURS






ECMWF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION FORECAST


I will continue to monitor this situation closely during the next 48 – 72 hours. 

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS