I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

Running late as I had a doctors appointment this morning.

I will be out of the office from Jul. 22 through the 31st to visit my son in PA.

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP
(GOES 19 Satellite is experiencing technical issues and the ATLANTIC imagery is behind by 19 – 20 hours)


AFRICA SATELLITE LOOP


Satellite loop imagery indicates the Atlantic remains quiet, with the exception of a Tropical Wave located near the Cape Verde islands, with water vapor imagery indicating quite a bit of dry air in the Atlantic basin with a slight decrease in moisture near the Cape Verde islands, eastward into a small area of Africa.

The NHC has issued a LOW (20%) probability for tropical cyclone development over the NE Gulf during the next 7 days and a LOW (10%) probability near the Cape Verde islands .
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC in the 06Z Surface Analysis indicated a tropical wave near 21W and 32W. The CIMSS TPW site was down so I am utilizing the ECMWF 06Z PWAT map
ECMWF 06Z TPW MAP (WAVE AXIS’ ARE IN BLACK)

Most of you have probably heard me speak of how quickly conditions can change in the tropics. This happens to be one of those times. The ECMWF Cyclone Formation Probability forecast model continues fluctuating the probability for Tropical Cyclone development in the NE Gulf, and has lowered the probability to 10% – 15%
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 24 – 96 HOURS
24 – 72 HOURS

48 – 96 HOURS

AREA 1
Today, the ECMWF probability has decreased the probability once again for development in the NE Gulf to10% – 15%. I base this on my analysis that the ECMWF model now indicates a weak, elongated area of low pressure developing in the area of the NE Gulf at approximately 48 – 72 hours from 00Z. The model still indicates initial conditions should be favorable, showing an initial radial shear pattern with reduced shear, some divergence in the upper atmosphere based on the 200 mb streamline forecast, with both surface to mid level moisture at favorable values. Based on analysis of forecast conditions from 96 hours and beyond, wind shear is forecast to increase from a northeasterly direction, and upper level winds will become zonal ending any divergence aloft. This low is forecast to come from a trough split that begins around the Mid Atlantic region, backing into the Gulf, where the feature begins as a trough of low pressure. My feeling on this is, that with the forecast of initially favorable forecast conditions, this may help develop a closed surface low. However, given the quick change to less favorable conditions thereafter, I currently am not looking for development of a Tropical Depression unless conditions remain favorable through and slightly beyond the 96 hour time frame. Even then, this would probably be inland. This should however bring some much needed rainfall over portions of the Florida peninsula over the next 7 days

I will continue to monitor this area closely for any significant changes to forecast conditions during the next 72 hours
INITIAL ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES

WPC 7 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FORECAST

AREA 2
A Tropical Wave located south of the Cape Verde islands has become less organized this morning. Analysis of initial conditions indicated very high PWAT and 700 mb relative humidity values. Wind shear was on the order of 5 – 10 kts but was only showing a partial radial pattern. A lack of divergence aloft was currently noted.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND 200 MB WINDS


Based on analysis of forecast conditions, in about 24 hours conditions may become a little more favorable for some further slow development. As we approach the 72 – 96 hour mark in the forecast period, conditions will become less conducive to unfavorable for any further development due to an increase in wind shear, and dry air intrusion. Though the ECMWF EPS probability is forecasting an 80% probability for development of a Tropical Depression, the NHC has only designated a 10% probability. Based on my analysis, I believe we may see some further slow development of this wave, however it is looking less likely we will see it reach Tropical Depression status, unless conditions change for the better.

I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes to the forecast conditions during the next 72 hours.

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES EATL

ECMWF EATL 24 HOUR WIND SHEAR AND 200MB STREAMLINE FORECAST


Elsewhere, I do not expect any tropical cyclone development during the next 5 – 7 days.

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.