I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

I will be out of the office from Jul. 22 through the 31st to visit my son in PA.

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP

AFRICA SATELLITE LOOP


Satellite loop imagery indicates the Atlantic remains quiet, with the exception of a Tropical Wave located near the Cape Verde islands, and an MCS in the Gulf near my location in Fla. Water vapor imagery indicates quite a bit of dry air in the Atlantic basin with a slight increase in moisture near the Cape Verde islands, eastward into a small area of Africa.

The NHC has issued a LOW (20%) probability for tropical cyclone development over the NE Gulf during the next 7 days and a LOW (10%) probability near the Cape Verde islands .
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC in the 06Z Surface Analysis indicated a tropical wave near 22W and 40W. The CIMSS TPW MIMIC – 2 site was down so I am utilizing the MIMIC-1 06Z PWAT map
CIMSS MIMIC – 1 06Z TPW MAP (WAVE AXIS’ ARE IN BLACK)

The ECMWF Cyclone Formation Probability forecast model continues fluctuating the probability for Tropical Cyclone development in the NE Gulf, and has increased the probability to 20% – 25%
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS
24 – 72 HOURS

24 – 72 HOURS

AREA 1
Based on analysis this morning, initial conditions over the Gulf are currently not favorable for development. The MCS which is located near Florida is due to support from an upper level low. Even though shear is below 20 kts, the flow over the Gulf in the upper atmosphere is cyclonic, allowing for no divergence aloft. The following is the recent wind shear and upper level winds from the CIMSS 12Z run:
CIMSS 12Z WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS


Based on analysis of the forecast maps from the WPC, an area of low pressure should develop in the NE Gulf sometime late Saturday / early Sunday, from a trough split of the large low pressure system well to the north..

At the time this low develops, initial conditions do not appear to be favorable, but maybe marginal at best as far as wind shear. Surface moisture and 700 mb relative humidity values are still forecast to be favorable. The pattern of the 200 mb streamlines indicates a lack of any upper level divergence, even though the CHI200 anomalies indicate otherwise.

Based on the current MSLP anomalies animation, the low now appears to move slowly westward. As this occurs, conditions will fluctuate, but slowly become less conducive for any development after 72 hours into the forecast period. Based on this, I do not believe we will see a Tropical Depression from this low.

This low however, should once again bring some needed rain to the west central Florida area.

I will continue to monitor this area closely however for any significant changes to forecast conditions during the next 72 hours
INITIAL ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES

ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST

ECMWF 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST

ECMWF 700 MB RH AND PWAT FORECAST


ECMWF 7 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FORECAST

AREA 2
There has been little change to the Tropical Wave located south of the Cape Verde islands this morning. Analysis of initial conditions indicated very high PWAT and 700 mb relative humidity values. Wind shear was on the order of 5 – 10 kts and indicated an improved radial pattern, with he 200 mb pattern indicating some slight divergence.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND 200 MB WINDS


TROPICAL WAVE

Based on analysis of forecast conditions, in about 24 hours conditions may become a slightly more favorable for some further slow development. As we approach the 72 hour mark in the forecast period, conditions will become less conducive to unfavorable for any further development due to an increase in wind shear, and dry air intrusion. Though the ECMWF EPS probability is forecasting an 80% probability for development of a Tropical Depression, the NHC has only designated a 10% probability. Based on my analysis, I believe we may see some further, brief slow development of this wave, however it is looking less likely we will see it reach Tropical Depression status, unless conditions change for the better.

I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes to the forecast conditions during the next 72 hours.

ECMWF 24 HOUR MSLP ANOMALIES EATL

ECMWF EATL 24 HOUR WIND SHEAR AND 200MB STREAMLINE FORECAST


Elsewhere, I do not expect any tropical cyclone development during the next 5 – 7 days.

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.