Good day everyone!

If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 10
TOTAL HURRICANES:        1
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


The NHC does not indicate any tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates the location of Tropical Waves. None were detected
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

The following is the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probabilities forecast during the next 3 – 7 days.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS


72 – 120 HOURS

120- 168 HOURS

ECMWF EPS MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

Based on my analysis this morning, as shown above, there is no change in the MJO forecast. The updated MJO phase space diagram forecast indicates the MJO is forecast to stall in phases 2 and 3, with members indicating a strong signal. This would have a tendency to suggest that we should see another area of tropical development, as these phases are considered the most favorable.

I am however, currently monitoring trough of low pressure near the Bahamas which the 3 global models have been showing for the past 2 – 3 days. The area can be seen in the NHC Surface Analysis map, and in current satellite loop imagery.
WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


Analysis of the 3 global models still indicate this, with the 3 indicating a split of the trough, with a closed low pressure system developing NE of the area, and a piece drifting initially toward the west. The ECMWF indicates in the 4 – 5 day period in the forecast, the lower MSLP anomaly drifting into the Florida straits, however does not indicate development. The other 2 are suggesting this feature develops north to NE of the Bahamas 5 – 7 days into the period. Based on this discrepancy, and current varying solution, this is not a definite development. However it may not be totally out of the question, with high pressure building north of the area. I will be monitoring this for the next week.

It is noted however that current and forecast conditions resemble the conditions that JOSEPHINE formed from. Based on my analysis of the ECMWF, the area in question is forecast to remain east of an upper level trof as did JOSEPHINE, with upper level winds likely to produce some type of outflow channel and divergence. Current analysis indicates this condition at the moment.
CIMSS CURRENT UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS

CIMSS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE

From the NHC Tropical Weather Discussion:
Atlantic Gale Warning:
A tightening pressure gradient will develop
as high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic and
low pressure deepens near the southern Bahamas along a trough or
developing frontal boundary. This synoptic setup is expected to
induce widespread fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds and
rough to very rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force
over much of the waters north of 27N between 60W and 75W tonight
through Sun night. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these
dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to
avoid the affected areas.

Elsewhere, I do not expect development during the next 5 to 7 days.
ECMWF, GFS, AND CMC MSLP FORECAST MAPS



ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 168 HOURS

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.