Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!

Regarding Tropical Weather Outlook issuance and Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical system will take precedence.  ALL Tropical issuance’s on my site will now pertain to the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf only.

Analysis this evening did not indicate any areas of interest in satellite loop imagery.  However, a low amplitude tropical wave is now noted exiting the African coast and is present in Precipitable Water imagery.  The wave axis is denoted by the black line:
RECENT TPW IMAGE

Based on analysis of current and 5 day wind shear forecast, wind shear should remain somewhat favorable over the extreme W. Caribbean Sea.  Although shear is currently below climatology in both the Caribbean Sea and MDR region of the Atlantic, vertical instability is also below climatology, which indicates a stable atmosphere, hence unfavorable for any tropical development. The CHI 200 anomalies forecast calls for sinking motion in the upper atmosphere during the next 5 – 7 days, thus no upper divergence.  Based on this, I do not expect any tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 – 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED)

ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP

Current wind shear and instability.  Climatology is denoted by the black line on the graph:
WIND SHEAR CARIBBEAN AND MDR

VERTICAL INSTABILITY


Elsewhere, analysis of the ECMWF and GFS global models indicate development of a Miller “TYPE – B” Nor’easter / coastal storm off the Mid Atlantic coast by the 21st of the month.  The system will stem from low pressure currently moving east across the U.S. which is responsible for the current round of severe weather.  Once the low develops along the coast, the forecast indicates a NE motion, and eventually affecting Nova Scotia by the 24th.  Winds may attain Gale force along portions of the New England coastal areas, and waves near the coast could attain heights of 10 – 12 ft.

It is HIGHLY recommended that small craft remain in port and residents remain away from the beaches during this time.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST


ECMWF AND GFS SURFACE WINDS FORECAST (MPH)


ECMWF AND WAVEWATCH 3 WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST


NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!