I'll be short and honest. Melissa is a very hard, minimal tropical storm to do a forecast for as it's hard multiple centers, erratic movement and problems with alignment. We call them tilted storms. It needs to be vertically aligned up in the atmosphere for it to be able to properly develop, evacuate energy, grow thunderstorms and all the things that tropical storms and hurricanes need to do to survive as an entity. When a storm moves at 3 MPH there's time for it to get it's act together. And, in a way it's good as it gives everyone in the path of Melissa to get their preparations done and to put their hurricane plans into action. Those of us who have been doing this a long time and with a good knowledge of Hurricane History have multiple deadly hurricanes dancing in our heads; images of mud rushing down the mountain side wiping away every thing and every on in it's path. Being honest. I said I'd be honest. 

I have done much research on Hurricane History. I have written on it. I have lectured on it. I have spent more hours than I could figure in the Library at the NHC (both of them, two locations) and at the South Florida Historical Center in the archives. Even more fun I've spent long weekends and vacation time down in Key West in the History Room with the always awesome, funny Tom Hambright who ran the room until he passed on a few years ago. I'm grateful to my friends in high places and to a few historians that mentored me and mean a lot to me. 

So many Cuban hurricanes, some that smashed into Florida after and others did not. Each month has it's own rhyme and reason when it comes to patterns connected to CLIMO; and then there are those that break the rules such as Beryl making landfall too early on an island that rarely gets landfall.

Melissa should be added to that list, should the forecast verify and as I was taught when the word "should" is used it's not a given, but it should :)

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

BobbiStorm

I'll update at the top so the Cone and Forecast Points can be compared easily. I was tired tonight. Sometimes I get Cluster Migraines.... change of weather, too much looping, maybe it's Solar Energy who knows. Difficult storms that struggle along until they pull it together are often the worst to deal with and Melissa seems to be that sort. Had she pulled it together and been stronger she'd have caught the front that tried to catch her tonight, but she's weak and messy with competing centers still. Models do not do well with competing centers, that's a story for another day but it's kind of obvious. So I listened to this song, over and over with the lights off, the laptop shut ... love this song. One of my favorites this year. Enjoy.